IMP Lead Problem

[pigpenz]

auction:

1♥ 2♦ p 2NT

p 3♠ p 3NT

p p p

 

hand:

[hv=s=sk1085hk10532dqcaq10]133|100|[/hv]

[pigpenz]

just curious as to what others would place in the 3nt bidders hand since we know they are probably 11-13hcp and some diamond fit i would assume with hearts.

 

ax

aqxx

kxx

xx

 

ax

aqj

j10

xxx

 

xx

aq

kx

kx

[han]

With 12 points or more and some diamond fit I would just jump to game.

 

I find this lead problem very hard. I would certainly not lead a club, but I can't easily reject any other lead. I'm going to vote or a boring heart lead, but I can see the logic behind a passive diamond lead or a hopeful spade lead (hoping that partner has something there or that we can ut down on dummy's entries before diamonds are set up.

[mike777]

spade

 

these canape leads always work for the Irish.

[Al_U_Card]

I feel that my S lead would give up too many tricks, and pard can only have a jack and he has length in C so I will lead the CQ and at my first opportunity follow up with the Ace then T so he can overtake with his CJ.......hope it will be a nice story to tell in the bar afterwards.......

[Al_U_Card]

just curious as to what others would place in the 3nt bidders hand since we know they are probably 11-13hcp and some diamond fit i would assume with hearts.

Seems to me that LHO may have reversed with 3S cards (but likely 4) and very nice D. RHO has 3S to the A or Q and 4H to the AQ...J and I am hoping the C K doubleton.

[mikeh]

Do I expect to beat this contract? No.

 

I think that I have to play partner to have a slow ♦ trick: say 10xxx.

 

Otherwise it is very, very difficult to see how I can stop them winning 4 side-suit tricks no matter what I lead.

 

I am going with a ♣, playing partner for Jxxxx in that suit along with his Jxx or 10xxx in ♦.

 

I may also need RHO to hold Kx of ♣, since if he has Kxx he can duck the 1st two rounds and then maybe duck my ♦Q. Leading the Q is very unlikely to fool anyone and it is remotely possible that LHO has the stiff K, so the Ace is the lead.

 

I thought about a ♥: that might work if he holds Q9x or so, and can get in with a ♦. However, I think that that is even more improbable then my ♣. Besides, given that this is imps, I'd expect partner to consider doubling 3N with that ♥ holding and a potential slow ♦ concern. Thus, while this is a slender inference, it is enough to persuade me to lead the ♣ (probably because I want to be persuaded)

 

As for the comment that LHO might hold only 3♠'s: I don't buy it for a second. RHO would raise 3♠ to 4 in a heartbeat if holding any 4 card support, and LHO cannot possibly have a hand on which he wants to play a moysian from his side on this auction.

[Al_U_Card]

As for the comment that LHO might hold only 3♠'s: I don't buy it for a second. RHO would raise 3♠ to 4 in a heartbeat if holding any 4 card support, and LHO cannot possibly have a hand on which he wants to play a moysian from his side on this auction.

Guess I was still stuck on my pard's (different hand earlier in the day) bid of S with 2 (Granted, they were the AK) to steer the opps away from a S lead...I think.

[tysen2k]

I picked a small spade, but this is a hard problem. Declarer likely has long hearts, probably 5 of them, maybe even 6.

 

Tysen

[Guest Jlall]

At imps I would lead the CQ. At MP, I would lead a diamond.

[cherdano]

I thought long over this until I had the courage to lead the ♣A. Partner is unlikely to have Q9x of hearts as he did not compete. I need a slow diamond stopper from partner, but even then I see 7 tricks for them already -- 5 diamonds and the major suit aces. Whatever suit besides diamonds I lead will likely set up a trick for them, so it feels like I should be really aggressive, and clubs seems to place the smallest requirements on partner for setting up 5 tricks. A heart just seems to help declarer, and (at least an honest) spade lead, too.

 

I don't see a big difference between ♣Q and the ♣A -- any reason why the other club leaders have voted for the Q so far?

 

Arend

[luke warm]

i'm with arend on this one, from the bidding it wouldn't surprise me if opps had 6 or 7 diamond tricks... maybe a spade is right, but i'd lead the ♣A... the ♣Q could work but i'll stick with the ace

[pigpenz]

I myself like either the ace or club queen they both cater to partner having jxxx(x) clubs and if delcarer/dummy is kx we get the suit going real quick and if he has kxx and ducks the duck may be the setting trick.

[Guest Jlall]

I led the Q instead of ace because if declarer does have Kxx opp xx he may not duck the lead. If I lead A then Q he will almost always duck.

[Kalvan14]

I led the Q instead of ace because if declarer does have Kxx opp xx he may not duck the lead. If I lead A then Q he will almost always duck.

I'm in full agreement. The ♣A gains only if N has a singleton K♣

[cherdano]

I led the Q instead of ace because if declarer does have Kxx opp xx he may not duck the lead. If I lead A then Q he will almost always duck.

I'm in full agreement. The ♣A gains only if N has a singleton K♣

Well, it also gains if dummy has Jxx and declarer has Kx, or dummy has Kx and declarer Jxx and I want to continue clubs myself. I admit the duck from Kxx is a good argument, as declarer declarer may well duck the ♦Q too once the club position is clear.

 

Arend

[Free]

♣A for me, however ♣Q might turn out better... Not sure, but it will defenitly be a ♣ :)

[Guest Jlall]

Well, it also gains if dummy has Jxx and declarer has Kx, or dummy has Kx and declarer Jxx and I want to continue clubs myself. I admit the duck from Kxx is a good argument, as declarer declarer may well duck the ♦Q too once the club position is clear.

 

Arend

If they have Kx opp Jxx, I don't expect to beat the hand. I can lead ace then low, sure, but that's only 2 tricks...then what? Note I said I would only lead a club at imps...my goal being to beat the hand.

[Winstonm]

Seems if left to their own devices the opponents will find 9 tricks as the cards look well placed for them. My hope is that pard can produce just enough help by way of the Jxx of diamonds and club length. And if I'm going down this road I might as well go full bore and lead the club Ace, just in case dummy has the singleton K.

 

Winston

[whereagles]

For some strange reason, I feel an urge to lead the queen of diamonds.

[mikeh]

For some strange reason, I feel an urge to lead the queen of diamonds.

You can get counselling for that :angry:

[Double !]

For some strange reason, I feel an urge to lead the queen of diamonds.

Does your strange feeling include envisioning becoming the victim of a strip and endplay? If so, I can understand your feelings.

 

DHL

[pigpenz]

Like Justin says, its IMPS...so we need to give ourselves the best chance of beating the contract. Were not worried about overtricks, but trying to find a way to beat this if possible. I think catering to jxxx(x) with partner is possible, partner rates at most to have 5hcp off of this auction and the way they bid it the one hand proabably got forced into 3nt by the 3♠ bid.

[pclayton]

The Q♣ (which I also led) doesn't automatically lead to a set when pard has J - length, but it may pay off in other ways - where we can win the trick (declarer finds the holdup with Kxx (x)) and can intelligently plan the defense, or it just picks a up a tempo and we can shift.

 

Probably the biggest reason not to lead it is pard might play you for KQT9 and pitch the Jack from J-4th. I wouldn't want to be at the table when that happens ;)

 

The Ace leaders have a similar issue too with the conventional unblock.

[pigpenz]

could be on this hand that partner pitching the jack of clubs was all you needed :) Maybe its that second club trick that will be the setting trick? ;)