Anyone for 1NT opening?

[cherdano]

I am wondering whether anyone would consider downgrading this to 1NT (15-17) opening:

♠852

♥AKQ

♦654

♣AKQ2

 

Arend

 

Oops, hand added.

[Walddk]

I would downgrade it to ZERO hcp. Where is the hand?

 

Roland

[Walddk]

No, I wouldn't downgrade it to 15-17. How often do you have 6 certain tricks when you open 1NT? Never. And furthermore, how often do you have 6 certain tricks when you open 1x and rebid 2NT over 1y? Almost never.

 

It's 18 to me, close between 18 and a good 18. I will downgrade it to 18 for two reasons.

 

1. Empty in 2 suits.

2. 3334.

 

I have nothing to be ashamed of if the auction goes

 

1♣ - 1♠

2NT

 

Roland

[Guest Jlall]

Yes I would downgrade it. I voted for "17" and my second choice was bad 17. AKQ tight is not a good holding, xxx's are not good, and 4333 is not good. If you think about hands that partner can have that won't produce game it's kind of shocking (this is the type of hand where balanced 26 HCP do not make game).

[Al_U_Card]

Looking at those 6 tricks and support for 2 other suits, I might just open 2NT....so i will upgrade the hand.....give pard his share of the outstanding and a 5 card major and game should come in np

[Walddk]

(this is the type of hand where balanced 26 HCP do not make game).

Are you sure?

 

Axx

xxx

Axx

xxxx

 

It's against the odds to make a move with that hand over 1NT (when can a 1NT opener produce 7 tricks?), and yet you have a 68% chance of making 3NT.

 

Roland

[Al_U_Card]

Yes I would downgrade it. I voted for "17" and my second choice was bad 17. AKQ tight is not a good holding, xxx's are not good, and 4333 is not good. If you think about hands that partner can have that won't produce game it's kind of shocking (this is the type of hand where balanced 26 HCP do not make game).

I agree with the above, on principle, but in this particular context these things can add up to some pretty good end results unless you open 1NT and pard passes with his 7 count. The 1C opener has the disadvantage of allowing opposition communication possibilities at the one level, but I can appreciate that it is the most "standard" approach.

[Guest Jlall]

(this is the type of hand where balanced 26 HCP do not make game).

Are you sure?

 

Axx

xxx

Axx

xxxx

 

It's against the odds to make a move with that hand over 1NT (when can a 1NT opener produce 7 tricks?), and yet you have a 68% chance of making 3NT.

 

Roland

lol...yes how nice that his 4 card suit is clubs Roland. Unfortunately there are 3 other suits, and if he has a 4333 hand with 2 aces, it's much more likely that his 4 card suit is not clubs.

 

I also disagree that it's wrong to invite with a 4333 hand that includes 2 aces at imps.

[Al_U_Card]

(this is the type of hand where balanced 26 HCP do not make game).

Are you sure?

 

Axx

xxx

Axx

xxxx

 

It's against the odds to make a move with that hand over 1NT (when can a 1NT opener produce 7 tricks?), and yet you have a 68% chance of making 3NT.

 

Roland

If you open 1C and pard bids 1NT (see another post where a hand with 11 hcp gets "downgraded" to a 1NT response) do you respond 2 or 3NT?

[joker_gib]

No, I wouldn't downgrade cause I have 6 tricks and I prefer to open that with 1 of a minor.

 

This gives me the opportunity to locate problems in ♠ or ♦ if opps overcall.

 

Alain

[Walddk]

If you open 1C and pard bids 1NT (see another post where a hand with 11 hcp gets "downgraded" to a 1NT response) do you respond 2 or 3NT?

2NT. It's an 18 count to me, so all I can do is invite.

 

Roland

[Al_U_Card]

Even if the 1NT response looks like it holds 4+ clubs, are there other 1 level responses by pard that might change your mind?

[Walddk]

Even if the 1NT response looks like it holds 4+ clubs, are there other 1 level responses by pard that might change your mind?

1NT doesn't promise clubs the way I play it. It denies majors, yes, but not diamonds.

 

Roland

[Winstonm]

Seems to me you won't be missing much if you call this 17 - 4333 is an automatic downgrade to me.

 

Winston

[mike777]

Glad I can downgrade this to exactly 17 and show exactly 17 hcp and not 15-17 :P.

[han]

This should not come as a surprize to you Arend: I downgrade.

[mikeh]

I would downgrade to 17 at mps but not at imps. At imps, teammates rarely seen to appreciate downgrading :P especially of the result of the downgrade is lose 10.

 

I see all of the reasons for downgrading and they make sense, but imps is a bidder's game.

[G_R__E_G]

Good 17. I figure the danger of bidding a game we can't make if I bid it strongly outweigh the risks of missing a game we could make if I downgrade it. Of course it would depend on my mood at the time. If I'd been having a "charmed" evening...

[pclayton]

I only evaluate this as an 18 count of Vul at IMPs.

 

4333's suck and this is no exception.

 

By the way, Arend, did you get this out of last month's BW? This hand was in MSC, and you had to deal with 1♣ - (1♦) - dbl - (pass) - ?

[MickyB]

This is a sick hand. I'm almost tempted to open it in a minor in the hope that I won't have to bid NT first, but as that is unlikely I'm probably best off opening 1NT.

[MickyB]

Really not sure about the logic of only downgrading at MPs or not downgrading when vul at IMPs. Just bid your hand, pard will be more aggressive vul at IMPs. Of course, if your teammates are the sort that will jump on any bad result then maybe you are best trying to keep the peace, but I would rather just find different teammates!

 

BTW, Binky evaluates this at about 16.3 points in terms of playing strength in NT. I seem to remember that I never got around to replying to a post asking me about Binky - you can find the evaluator here. The average Binky count for NT for a balanced 10 count is 3.07, 11 pts = 3.58, 12 pts = 4.09, I'm not sure quite how accurate extrapolating from these figures is but it seems unlikely to be too far off.

[MickyB]

Oh yes - Binky assumes that the contract is right-sided, as this is very unlikely to be the case here I suspect that this hand should be downgraded further.

[han]

I absolutey agree with Micky that fear of teammates should not be a reason to make a bid that you think is inferior. I'm wondering if Mikeh ever lets this influence his decisions, it is not clear what the smiley face meant.

[pigpenz]

No, I wouldn't downgrade it to 15-17. How often do you have 6 certain tricks when you open 1NT? Never. And furthermore, how often do you have 6 certain tricks when you open 1x and rebid 2NT over 1y? Almost never.

 

It's 18 to me, close between 18 and a good 18. I will downgrade it to 18 for two reasons.

 

1. Empty in 2 suits.

2. 3334.

 

I have nothing to be ashamed of if the auction goes

 

1♣ - 1♠

2NT

 

Roland

heck how often do you have six certaintricks when you open 2NT

[mikeh]

I absolutey agree with Micky that fear of teammates should not be a reason to make a bid that you think is inferior. I'm wondering if Mikeh ever lets this influence his decisions, it is not clear what the smiley face meant.

I was kidding.... you should make the bid you think is correct: I haven't played on a team on which my teammates second-guess me for many years: I only play with friends. I don't have any problem with discussing decisions that any of us make, in a constructive fashion, but I would not play twice on a team where there was frequent sniping.

 

But downgrading at mps is logical: mps rewards plus scores, whereas imps rewards big scores.

 

If I play 10 hands on which all except me reach game, and game makes 4 times: I get 4 zeros and 6 tops: in a tough field 60% is a good score.

 

If half the contracts make, I score 50%.

 

At imps, even if all of the contracts were nv, I am a net loser (assuming that all games fail by one trick and do not get doubles, etc) if half the contracts make. Allow them to be vulnerable, and I am a net loser even when only 4 of the contracts make.

 

So in a close situation, mps rewards aiming low and thus I would downgrade more frquently at mps than at imps: I would rarely downgrade at either.