Free Posted October 16, 2005 Report Share Posted October 16, 2005 Bidding goes:1♣* - 2♣* - 2NT* - 3♥*Dbl - 3♠ - 4♥ - all pass 1♣ = 15+ any2♣ = 4+♣ and 4+M2NT = GF balanced, no good 5 card M3♥ = P/C [hv=d=n&v=n&n=sj4haq9daq52ck863&s=s75hk7432dj76caqt]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]LHO leads ♣7 and RHO plays the J.You have 2 ♠ losers and a ♦. According to the bidding, LHO should have 4-5♥s. What's the best way to play the ♥s? Extra information (hidden): if you play a low ♥ to dummy, LHO plays low. What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void) Tnx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted October 16, 2005 Report Share Posted October 16, 2005 What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void) Tnx % For stiff Jack or Ten by East is 5.6522, so that isn't very big chance. % For JT to be in West hand is 22.04351. I didn't count if West had all the ♥.But in case you wanted to know, it is an extra 1.9565%. GBB :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgr Posted October 16, 2005 Report Share Posted October 16, 2005 What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void) Tnx % For stiff Jack or Ten by East is 5.6522, so that isn't very big chance. % For JT to be in West hand is 22.04351. I didn't count if West had all the ♥.But in case you wanted to know, it is an extra 1.9565%. GBB :lol:..And if East has singleton ♥ J or T then you can only make if he also has ♦K; otherwise West will get a ♣ ruff. (West will need a doubleton ♣ anyway).....small ♥ to the 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted October 17, 2005 Report Share Posted October 17, 2005 What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void) Tnx % For stiff Jack or Ten by East is 5.6522, so that isn't very big chance. % For JT to be in West hand is 22.04351. I didn't count if West had all the ♥.But in case you wanted to know, it is an extra 1.9565%. GBB :lol: These percentages seem completely useless, as they ignore the auction. It is very simple really: If LHO has 4 hearts, than he has JT in 3 cases (RHO small singleton), and RHO has J or T in 2 cases. If LHO has 5 hearts, well he has JT. So even ignoring the case that LHO has 5 hearts, it is 60% that he has JT. Arend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted October 17, 2005 Report Share Posted October 17, 2005 Where are my opponents from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted October 17, 2005 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2005 Where are my opponents from? My own team, it was a training :rolleyes: I played low to the 9, contract making since RHO had a small stiff. If LHO keeps his mouth shut, I'd probably not finesse and go down... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted October 17, 2005 Report Share Posted October 17, 2005 were clubs 5-1? If they were lho could have just split and beat you. If not, you have to guess the play. If RHO has the DK, you must lead a small diamond to the jack after they split. but if LHO has the DK this wont work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted October 17, 2005 Report Share Posted October 17, 2005 What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void) Tnx % For stiff Jack or Ten by East is 5.6522, so that isn't very big chance. % For JT to be in West hand is 22.04351. I didn't count if West had all the ♥.But in case you wanted to know, it is an extra 1.9565%. GBB :P These percentages seem completely useless, as they ignore the auction. It is very simple really: If LHO has 4 hearts, than he has JT in 3 cases (RHO small singleton), and RHO has J or T in 2 cases. If LHO has 5 hearts, well he has JT. So even ignoring the case that LHO has 5 hearts, it is 60% that he has JT. Arend It is a little more complicated then that actually.With the bidding in mind, and knowing that East has maximum of 1♥, at least according to Free, the % is 85.715 that the JT is with West.There is a 7.143% chance that West has either the J or T stiff. GBB :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted October 17, 2005 Report Share Posted October 17, 2005 Let's say just for fun that you think East might have 2♥, and find out how the % chances.Now there is a 25 % chance that either the J or the 10 is with East.1 Card can make a big difference.But the % play is still to double finesse. GBB :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted October 17, 2005 Report Share Posted October 17, 2005 Let's say just for fun that you think East might have 2♥, and find out how the % chances.Now there is a 25 % chance that either the J or the 10 is with East.1 Card can make a big difference.But the % play is still to double finesse. GBB :P huh? are you saying if east might have a doubleton heart its right to double finesse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted October 17, 2005 Report Share Posted October 17, 2005 If you obviously know for a fact that they are 4-1 yes. With a 3-2 you don't have too, but if not sure and the bidding is indicating that it is more then likely 4-1 but might be 3-2 you still have 75% to get it right with the double finesse. GBB :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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