-11 IMPs

[Guest Jlall]

This would be a good hand for simulation. Where is tysen when we need him :)

[junyi_zhu]

Here's a hand where partner and I lost 11 IMPs

 

[hv=d=s&n=s6532hk32dat3ckq3&w=sj4hq97dk875ct987&e=saqt987hjt86d96c4&s=skha54dqj42caj652]399|300|Scoring: IMPs[/hv]

 

The auction was a prosaic 1N - (P) - 3N. The opening lead was the Jack of Spades to the Ace, at whcih point the opps ran the first 6 Spade tricks.

 

Who gets the charge?

 

1. South for not opening 1!C

2. West for finding a stellar opening lead?

This is like in poker, you go all in with AK suited against 22 and is knocked out by 22 eventually. Still, that SJ is a horrible lead in my opinion.

[tysen2k]

This would be a good hand for simulation. Where is tysen when we need him :P

A few weeks old, but better late than never?

 

GIB simulations are probably best for this kind of thing. Here is how it rates the top choices:

 

CT: -390.60 -> 0.58

H7: -392.20 -> 0.47

SJ: -397.60 -> 0.36

D5: -399.30 -> 0.32

H9: -391.40 -> 0.20

S4: -393.70 -> 0.15

D8: -399.30 -> 0.01

HQ: -399.10 -> -0.03

DK: -429.20 -> -0.87

 

The first number is the expected score after that lead and the second number is IMPs compared to the par contract. So it looks like a heart is the better major to lead, but clubs is better than them both. But it also looks like GIB doesn't expect to beat the contract very often with any lead.

 

I think I would have lead a club at the table as well.

 

Tysen

[Guest Jlall]

Thanks Tysen.

[Kalvan14]

South is to blame: opening 1NT is like taking a roulette spin. You may win, or you may loose, but it is a swinging action.

I would have opened 1♦, with the intention of rebidding ♣.

The likely auction would be: 1♦ - (P) - 1♠ - (P) - 2♣ - (P) - ?.

At this point I see 2 possible line of thoughts:

a) N bids 3NT, disregarding the 4 small cards in ♠; it is the most likely 9and prosaic) action, and the result is 3NT+1 on the likely led of ♥ J.

B) N goes for a more sophisticated auction, and bids 2♥ (4th suit forcing). S would rebid 3NT, but this gives N the right information (1-3-5-4 or 1-3-4-5 are the likeliest distributions. N should bid 4♦ (forcing) and pass over S 5♣ (which clarifies the mnors' distribution)

[kfgauss]

H7: -392.20 -> 0.47

SJ: -397.60 -> 0.36

 

H9: -391.40 -> 0.20

S4: -393.70 -> 0.15

Why do H9 and S4 get better expected total points, but fewer expected imps vs the par contract compared with H7 and SJ, respectively?

 

Aside from the inconsistency, I can see some merit for H9 instead of H7 gaining occasionally, but when would S4 ever gain (double dummy) over SJ?

 

Andy

[ochinko]

Now, where is Luis when you need him? B)

 

Never mind, my point is that the spade lead was fairly obvoius. He's made a simulation of his own showing that with similar bids and with 6-8 HCP more often than not the best lead is in your shorter major. And it makes a lot of sense if you think about it. A lead in a major is always to be considered when opps skip Stayman. Plus, what good is leading from your longest suit if you won't have the entries when it gets established?

 

I would consider leading the CT only at MP.

 

Petko

[bearmum]

Here's a hand where partner and I lost 11 IMPs

 

[hv=d=s&n=s6532hk32dat3ckq3&w=sj4hq97dk875ct987&e=saqt987hjt86d96c4&s=skha54dqj42caj652]399|300|Scoring: IMPs[/hv]

 

The auction was a prosaic 1N - (P) - 3N. The opening lead was the Jack of Spades to the Ace, at whcih point the opps ran the first 6 Spade tricks.

 

Who gets the charge?

 

1. South for not opening 1!C

2. West for finding a stellar opening lead?

well I would prefer to open ANYTHING but 1NT with S hand ---- but then I am a consertive bidder B)

[Rebound]

FWIW, just my 2 cents...

 

While I appreciate the appeal and reasons for opening 1NT, I would open this hand 1♦. Opening NT with singletons just does not sit right with me.

 

My lead is the spade Jack. The second paragraph of mikestar's post succinctly describes my reasons.

 

"J♠ is a good lead when East has the spades and may be a fair passive lead if he doesn't. If West is aware that you will open 1NT with a stiff, particularly a stiff spade (most frequent rebid issues), this increases the appeal of the lead."

 

I do not make this lead by rote, however, nothing else seems very attractive here.

 

*Having said all that, I admit going down in 3NT on this hand was a little unlucky.

Edited October 21, 2005 by Rebound

[Guest Jlall]

Is T987 really an unattractive lead? No chance of blowing a trick (well almost 0) with a good chance of setting up some tricks. Jx on the other hand has an extremely high chance of blowing a trick and not much more potential to set up tricks.

[cherdano]

When I was an intermediate (but thought of myself as advanced, of course) I often tried to be clever with leads like Jx or Qx to hit partner's suit. I hope I am cured now :)

They are, however, a little more attractive if you are very weak, so that there is no gain in setting up tricks in your own hand.

 

Arend

[Echognome]

I don't have a problem with leading a club. I just judge this to be an attacking lead of a spade to get partner's suit going early on. On some hands I will have given the 9th trick on the lead and won't feel very good. On others I will have made the killer lead. Give me a couple more scattered values (say an extra Q or K somewhere) and it'll sway me into the passive club lead.

[Al_U_Card]

It appears that your side's points are evenly shared and that the lead will determine what happens......that said I would choose the H7 with the CT a close second (despite the auction) because I dislike leading from a 3 card suit with the ambiguous 7... don't think that the SJ would be a consideration.

[Winstonm]

You pays your money......

 

I don't see the point in opening the South hand 1N but I wouldn't have any argument with a partner who chose this bid - to me the hand isn't all that good and can be shown quited easily by opening 1D and rebidding 2C.

 

The blame falls to luck - both bad and good.

 

As as aside, I know there is a lot of value in placing these hands into the NT structure as it helps define other bids; however, there is also something to be said for retaining the balanced aspect of the NT bid to suggest a NT contract. I confess it would not occur to me to open 1N as the south hand has as much or more suit value than NT value due to the shape.

 

Winston

[mikestar]

West might have reasoned his way to the spade lead. The diamond on Kxxx can easily blow a trick without creating length winners to compensate. The club on T987 is 100% safe but unlikely to be productive.  So it is reasonable to take a shot at hitting partner's major. Qxx is more useful if it is right, but less likely to hit partner than Jx and more likely to blow a trick. Qxx has a fair chance to be a defensive trick if NS have the hearts if West doesn't lead it for them, while Jx is likely dead anyway if NS have the spades.

 

So J♠ is a good lead when East has the spades and may be a fair passive lead if he doesn't. If West is aware that you will open 1NT with a stiff, particularly a stiff spade (most frequent rebid issues), this increases the appeal of the lead.

Just to clarify, I was attempting to demonstrate how West might have reasoned. I would have led T♣ (or 9♣ if playing Journalist Leads). In power NT auctions I prefer safety unless I have a high odds agressive lead--and I don't think J♠ has good enough odds. I would have considered it, however, and West may have reasoned similarly but evaluted the odds differently than I did.

[tysen2k]

H7: -392.20 -> 0.47

SJ: -397.60 -> 0.36

 

H9: -391.40 -> 0.20

S4: -393.70 -> 0.15

Why do H9 and S4 get better expected total points, but fewer expected imps vs the par contract compared with H7 and SJ, respectively?

 

Aside from the inconsistency, I can see some merit for H9 instead of H7 gaining occasionally, but when would S4 ever gain (double dummy) over SJ?

 

Andy

I was noticing that too. My guess is that some of the leads are slightly more likely to set the contract but also more frequently give up an overtrick. Since the score -> IMPs conversion is not linear you can get a lead that scores better in one way and not in the other.

 

My other thought was that I think (but I'm not sure) GIB gives a slight bonus to "signalling correctly." Since the rest of the play is double dummy, GIB intentionally gives a small penalty to leads like low from a doubleton since there is a chance that partner will be mislead in real play.

 

Tysen

[tysen2k]

I think a spade lead would be much better if our hand were weaker. As it is, I think almost any lead is okay. If we were stronger, then leading our best suit is likely best.