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A simple quiz


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Fine, since you didn't answer my question, I will answer yours:

 

The first one obviously, but it is still not worth a raise opposite a quantitative 4NT. If, on the other hand, I got a slam invite with my hand (yes, I'll treat it as at least 24 hcp), then there would be no doubt in my mind. A clear raise to 6NT.

 

Roland

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I am very, very disappointed in Roland's pass. Slam has to be at least 11%, and I had always believed that Roland loved such contracts :)

 

I like 5. I will pass 5N, and bid 5N (non-forcing and probably down 1 :D ) over 5Major. Partner could have a 4 card major, but he will then be 4333 and I will wish I could retreat with a subtle 4N rebid.

 

This hand is on the cusp. But while I dislike 4333 hands, I love Aces and Kings and I do have 23, count them, 23 hcp on an auction in which I showed 22-23 and partner asked me if I have a maximum or a minimum. If 0 was a minimum and 4 a max, such that 2 was average, this is a 2.5.... okay, for Roland's sake, I will be more precise: a 2.47639.

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I showed 22-23

Did you? Why did you not show 22-24? Do you force to game with 24 balanced?

 

Roland

Well the problem stipulated the bidding showed 22-23, so that is what we must assume.

Indeed Justin, so my main concern is what you do with 24 balanced. Force to game I take it. Seems unsound to me.

 

Roland

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I showed 22-23

Did you? Why did you not show 22-24? Do you force to game with 24 balanced?

 

Roland

Well the problem stipulated the bidding showed 22-23, so that is what we must assume.

Indeed Justin, so my main concern is what you do with 24 balanced. Force to game I take it. Seems unsound to me.

 

Roland

Multi? Kokish relay? Anyway, I think it is more productive to answer the given question, instead of assuming that the question must be a different one, because otherwise there MUST be a hole in a system that we otherwise don't know at all.

 

Arend

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Playing a 2 point range (22-23) hardly is enough to make an intellegent decision on an invite based upon "Stregth" as determined by hcp's. Partner can not really be sitting there thinking, if partner has 23 hcp we should be in slam and if he has 22 we should stop in four. Sorry, I don't buy that.

 

So while quantitative (no other explaination fits for me), I think this 4NT also has to carry more of a request. IT has to be looking for an extra-ordinary 2NT opener. One with a source of tricks. True this one is a little heavy from a control standpoint (8 controls is probably one more than normal for this range opening bid... you have more than half the deck, you should have more than half the controls (12 in all, so 6 is half).

 

I can't get overly excited about that extra control. Now give me a juicy five card suit, that I can imagine winning five tricks in and 22 or 23 points, off I go. Give me 4432 so I can search for a 4-4 fit and have some decent chance for ruffing value, fine I will take a chance. This hand, for all its "beauty" is minimum for this auction and I see nothing remotely encouraging me to bid again.

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If there is such a thing as a bad 23 count, this must be it. 3343 and no intermediates.

Hmm. On the upside, I have 3 aces, two kings supported by an ace, and two queens supported by an ace. I don't think the hand is as bad as you make it.

 

Arend

I tend to agree with Arend here: the fact opener has all prime values, means that they cluster well with any quacks provided by responder.

 

I think that, even in balanced hands, AK in the same suits are worth at least 7.5 hcp, and even downgrading by say, 0.75 hcp the hand for 4333 shape, I'll reevaluate it for all the prime values held.

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Just goes to show how hopeless the Milton 4321 scale is.

 

KQ opposite x in a suit contract. 5 hcp, 1 loser.

Ax opposite x in a suit contract. 4 hcp, no loser.

 

QJ opposite xx. 3 hcp, no trick.

Kx opposite xx. 3 hcp, 50% chance of 1 trick.

KJ opposite xx, 4 hcp, 50% chance of 1 trick.

Ax opposite xx, 4 hcp, 100% chance of 1 trick.

 

AKQ opposite xxx. 9 hcp, 3 tricks in a NT contract.

AKQxxxx opposite xxx. 9 hcp, 7 tricks in a NT contract.

 

AJ10 opposite xxx. 5 hcp, 76% chance of 2 tricks.

AJx opposite xxx. 5 hcp, 25% chance of 2 tricks.

AQ10 opposite xxx. 6 hcp. 75% chance of 2 tricks.

AQx opposite xxx. 6 hcp, 50% chance of 2 tricks.

 

Someone should change the scale as soon as possible and at least give the 10 something, if supported by one or more honours.

 

Roland

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Openers range is very limited (22-23). Does it make sense to play 4NT as quantitative in that case?

Yes, just as over a 2NT opener.

 

2NT (20-21) - 4NT is quant invite.

 

20-21 and 22-23 is a 2 hcp range, so the system is the same.

(Or, if we think it does not make sense, then the system should change , for sake of consistency, also over the 2NT opener)

 

Of course when the range is so small,, the criteria for accepting is not so much point count but the overcall quality of the hand and specifically:

 

- shape (4333 is a minus, a 5 bagger is a plus)

- honors clustering is a lus, and AK clustering is a HUGE plus, worth close to 1 full extra hcp for each AK cluster

- presence/lack of intermediates (T9s), not accounted for in the point count

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Unless I'm in a pick-up partnership with no methods, partner cannot possibly have a 5-card suit anywhere. In fact, he shouldn't really have two 4- card suits. How can he expect us to evaluate our balanced hand, with no indication of where his length is?

 

I expect 4NT to be 4333 (in some order), and I pass.

The same if we went via Stayman, except now I expect him to be 4333 with a 4-card major.

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