Which of the two?

[Walddk]

As Gerben says: one hand proves nothing, and the fact that two world class players did not overcall 2♣ shows that it's not an obvious overcall by any means. To me and many others it's an obvious pass.

 

Soon we will see the votes on BPO-005. All hands are taken from recent BBO vugraph broadcasts, as Ben states. For obvious reasons I recognize them all, but that has not had any influence on the decisions I made.

 

I know what worked out at the table (because I know the full layouts), and a few of my votes do not reflect what was best at the time, merely what I would bid at the table. If anyone thinks that he or she can get it right every time, they are living in a dream world.

 

Roland

[Chamaco]

In the auction Nikos gave, it was possible for west to come in with a 2nd round double.

 

I would like comments on whether such a double would be too dangerous.

 

EDIT: Sorry forget it, did not notice opener had reversed.

[cherdano]

In the auction Nikos gave, it was possible for west to come in with a 2nd round double.

 

I would like comments on whether such a double would be too dangerous.

Do you mean the reverse auction 1♦-1♠-2♥? I think it is way too dangerous to enter here -- opponents are (usually) strong, and the deal could still be a total misfit.

 

Arend

[PMetsch]

North - South are playing Swedish club, so opener is showing about 14-16 HCP. Still I wouldn't DBL on the second round.

[Al_U_Card]

For the record, about the "best possible results"  vs "best results

possible": the originator of the concept is not Zia, obviously, but

S.J. (Skid) Simon, in "Why you lose at bridge"; and he was

referring mainly to partner management at rubber bridge.

Yes, and although "Why you lose at bridge" is an excellent book, this thing has always really annoyed me. I can't see any difference between the meanings of the phrases "best possible result" and "best result possible". Of course I know what point he was trying to make, but I don't think the word order does it (except that it makes you think).

I think if you replace "the best result possible" with "the best result to be expected under the circumstances" it becomes much clearer as an estimate of what is likely to occur.

 

(I can set them seven in 1NT (if all my cards are high) versus I will lead normally and hope to take at least seven tricks most of the time.)

[whereagles]

kfgauss: I didn't do any exaustive calculation on how likely is it for LHO or pard to have a stack of clubs (I could do it, but don't have time). Still, I can tell you one thing from experience:

 

When your lenght about 9-10 cards in your suit + opps' suit, then usually the overcall is ok. Pard comes up with moderate or better support and all is well.

 

When the lenght your suit + opps' suit is 11 or more, then overcalling starts to get risky. What usually happens when you have extreme lenght in those suits is that pard is extremely short on them and rates to have a two-suiter on the opposite suits!

 

In the 1st case (9-10), you can be a bit bold and bid some of pard's values in your overcall.

 

In the 2nd case (11+) you should only bid what you have in front of you. And preferably 1 level below what you'd usually do, so as to rebid your suit, should pard get enthousiastic with his "super two suiter" (remember he doesn't know yet is a misfit).

 

This reminds me of a hand. In the 1997 bermuda bowl final, Eric Rodwell had a 1-0-4-8 shape with decent clubs, at all green. RHO opens a natural 1♦ and he overcalls 5♣. LHO doubles and he goes -300. What happened? Pard (Meckstroth) had a 65 or so in the majors and nobody can make anything.

 

In the other room the overcall is "only" 4♣ and it derailed the Nickell pair, who ended up a bunch down in 4♦. That was 10 imps to France, who began to pull away and eventually won the match.

[cherdano]

Where is Luis when we need him -- I am sure he would defend 2♣!

 

Arend

[Al_U_Card]

Where is Luis when we need him -- I am sure he would defend 2♣!

 

Arend

I see he is back, or at least he posted an answer liking a 4S opening bid on a 6 card suit....no surprise there....lol :)