phil_20686

This is not even good enough though, in most cases they will win the first club and play a heart. So even if you plan to steal 4 spades somehow, you are sure to table the diamond Q next and steal one diamond before clubs. I do not understand thinking an opponent is so weak that they will lead small from JT9xx but that they will always split from J975 after small T Q does not make sense at all imo. I would think that a player that does not see the merit in leading the J from JT9xx will never imagine that you might be planning to put in the 8.... I mean there are a ton of weak players who would likely lead a spade from T75 Axxx Axx Axx because they do not like to lead away from aces, which is why I would be a bit concerned about trying to hook the spade 8 on the way back. I have no idea what the "best line" to steal this contract is though. Everything seems pretty hopeless.

I think east can bid 4d. The trumps are not brilliant but you might still be able to play in diamonds and sometimes (quite a lot!) partner just has the right hand for you Axx AKxx AQxxx x Is typical, if good, and there are plenty of hands like Axx AJTx AQJxx x where intermediate hearts give you a good slam opposite moderate values. I do not think its crystal clear to bid 4d because it is quite hard to construct typical hands where slam is rock solid, and that is usually a pretty good bar for whether you should move, since there are risks. Even partner having really good hands like KQx KQJx AQJxxx - can easily end up too high, and to be rock solid partner probably needs something like Ax AKJT AQJxxx x, which is probably not sitting 4h.

This hand seems reasonably straight forward to analyse, but in practice there are a couple of extra things to consider: 1) If you play a low club of the dummy at trick two the number of players who can play low smoothly enough from kxx at MP is incredibly small. As in. Maybe 40-50 defenders in the whole world might attempt it. This could just be carelessly conceding an over trick at match points. At teams, its much easier to duck, so if you are playing MP playing a low club of the dummy at trick two intending to duck if rho plays low. If you are playing teams I would basically always go up with the Q. 2) If you are worried about rho being good enough to duck at teams you might start by cashing four rounds of diamonds. Its hardly beyond the realm of possiblility that rho might pitch three spades and a club from a shape like 6403, worried that you have three spades. If rho has two diamonds then the hand will likely be cleared up for you when you play a club off dummy. If he is 7420 or something you won't go wrong! I am guessing that you "went wrong" on this board by doing something like cashing 5d playing the ten of hearts to the K and then a club off, where upon lho won and played a heart. It can seem tempting to insert the 9 and this point, but there is really no need. The finesse isn't free and that costs you when its Jx on your right, which is a moderately likely layout. besides which, lho can see dummy and wouldn't play a heart lightly from Jxxx!

Passing is way too much for me and I pass these more than most. Obviously depends on agreements but 2N seems fine if its natural. I'd have passed in first if playing 2/1, especially if playing a short club.

Yes. This would certainly be natural for me (on the grounds that clearly we haven't discussed and it could well be natural in principle.) Expecting 6-4 or 7-4 and unwilling to sit a double. KQJx - xx AKQJxxx or something. But if for whatever reason you think it isn't, east has a clear 6c bid.

East's failure to take action over 4H is really pretty bizarre. Wests 4S bid is way too much. Its just mad from east though to have been happy to defend 4H undoubled and then suddenly to be piling into slam....

Well, as I see it, east has passed throughout, his man has made a slam try opposite a passed hand, and I have a four trumps to the Q, and a keycard, and another control. What more could partner want from a passed hand?

So I basically agree with all of this except it still feels reasonably close to me. There is a wide basket of hands with a stiff spade that would not act over 2S where 5C is the winning action, e.g. x KQJx xxxx xxxx, x Akxx xxxx xxxx etc. On some of this basket 4S goes down. Of course, there are hands not disimmilar where 5C is a disaster and 4S could not be made: Jx QJxx QJTx xxx . All of the reasoning by MrAce is correct, it just feels closer to me to bid than it does to him. Also, lets not forget that bidding 5C is basically going to transfer this exact same problem back to the opps. They could be doubling a making 5c with 5S cold or -1 from their perspective, so 5C doesn't have to be "right" to win.

I am a little concerned about the JS lead for the reason that if there is Qxx in the dummy it can be hard for partner to realise he is supposed to put the ace on and play a diamond back. For that reason there is a strong case for a low spade here I would have thought, force partner to win and play a diamond back. Of course, by the time I realise this it is already some minutes since I led the spade J. :)

There are a ton of possible agreements for a but it rarely shows the good one suited hand. Too often you just need to bid 4s with like AKJxxxx and a bit outside which is too good to bid 2s and not quite right for 3s. Its not uncommon to use 4H as the GOSH hand on this auction. b is usually a typical GOSH. c is more like an opening hand with 8 clubs. Not dissimilar to a really except that you already opened the bidding and partner has shown some life.

I think that there is a reasonable inference that lho has the diamond ace from the lead. I have no difficulty if hearts are 2-2. Problem layouts are hands like lho having KQT Qxx Axx T9xx. In this case one heart and the diamond K is necessary (as the heart removes their one safe exit - a lot heart). The club 8 in dummy is a massive card given the club lead. Given that its a RHM problem it seems like this type of extra chance is likely the answer.... After one heart and the diamond K, if rho wins and plays a spade I have no chance but to play lho for HT or H9 doubleton. I can do this only by ruffing two diamonds and two clubs and exiting with my heart. Being careful to draw the second round of trumps early-ish.

It would be good to know if partner tends to lead low from JTxxx from a weak hand. I would not lead the J if I had length usually so I might well play for manudude's construction, but not sure what would be standard practice to lead from a 1 count here.

This feels like an unecessarily precise construction no? I mean, partner is reasonably likely to just have 5 spades?

Opposite typical 3h bids i would dble as I think we likely have a significant balance of the points, and I am realistically only risking 4 imps for 4sx= vs 4s=, whereas I am gaining 5 for 4sx-2 vs 4s-2 along with 2 for 4s -1 and potentially a bunch of -3 although that would be a minority result. Thus I would expect to be EV positive even if I am only beating 4s by 60% of the time, (half by 1 half by 2), which I think is reasonably pessimistic.

Yes