I agree with Fred's mathematical point. Essentially, the spade spots become a pseudo suit since their play involved no choice or decision, i.e., the missing queen would always be withheld. Therefore, at the moment of decision vacant spaces are equal if RHO has exactly two more known cards in another suit. However, there is a restricted choice element (I didn't see mentioned) relating to _how_ the ruff was obtained. If leader was simply leading his partner's suit, there is nothing here. But if he _chose_ to lead a singleton, a trump holding of xxx is more likely than Qxxx. That is, a singleton lead is automatic with xxx, but hardly so with Qxxx. Under these circumstances, it's certainly better to play for the drop in the 50-50 situation. And it may be better to extend playing for the drop even further. -- Richard Pavlicek Web site: www.rpbridge.net