Definitely a guess about the opps distribution in the suits would help. For example, if I think LHO has 3, he is more likely to have underled A than QJ, but if he has 5, I think he is more likely to underlead QJ. All of this eliminating variance thing is kind of weird to me. I have enough trouble trying to get expected value decisions right, and now I am supposed to worry about the second moment too? And why is everybody always playing weaker teams?