ron

davey moore is the other boxer, great song.

Thanks for your replies. Since someone asked: the spade lead was the winner this time.

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=skxxhtxdqtxxcj9xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Opponents bid 1D 1H 2N 3C 3H 4N 5H 6H 3C is new minor focing, 4N is RKCB. How would you rate various leads?

[hv=s=skjt2h8dkq973ct92]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] Matchpoints, opponents are silent. The auction proceeds: 1N 2C 2D 3D 3S ? What would you do now? Would it make a difference if you had a few more HCP (different diamonds, say)?

Seems like Zia/Rosenberg played something like this. From Zia-Rosenberg CC notes: (NOTE 44) CHOICE OF GAMES CUEBID: THIS OCCURS USUALLY AT THE FOUR LEVEL AND USUALLY AFTER OPPONENTS HAVE MADE A PREEMPTIVE BID OR RAISE. THEY DO NOT APPLY IF 4-LEVEL CUE BID IS ONE UNDER LAST SUIT WE BID. E.G. AFTER (3♦) 3♠-(P) 4♦, OVERCALLER SHOULD ROUTINELY BID 4♥ WITH 5-3 IN THE MAJORS, EVEN 6-3 WITH BAD ♠. REPEAT CUE OR JUMP PREFERENCE BY ADVANCER SHOWS SLAM TRY WITH CONTROL. (2♥) 2♠-(P) 3♥ SUGGESTS FEWER THAN 3-CARD ♠, UNLESS REPEAT CUE. RETURNING TO THE HIGHER RANKING OF TWO REMAINING PLACES TO PLAY IS A SLAM TRY. RETURNING TO PARTNER'S SUIT AFTER COG CUEBID IS A SLAM TRY.

It was not specified that we had to play 4M. 3N probably makes more often when partner has hearts than when partner has spades. It also probably makes more often than 4M in that case... although it will often go down more when it fails. I'd be interested in seeing what a sim suggests about all this, if anyone is willing.

Sorry, what I wrote directly above is wrong, the pedantic answer is 8,8,8, does not exist. Covering is always right with Q9xx and Qxx.

I guess the pedantic answer is 8,8,8, does not matter. Optimal defense with Q9xx/Qxx is to play so that when the fourth case occurs, either holding is equally likely from declarer's POV. They can duck any percentage of the time with Q9xx (including never), so long as they duck C times as often with Qxx (where C is prob(Q9xx)/prob(Qxx)). If they don't do that, they can be exploited.

Han, I am not convinced by your argument (although the conclusion may well be correct). If the opponents had the AQ942 instead of the AQ974, then your reasoning would certainly be correct. But in the given situation, playing the 8 loses to LHO's Q974 when LHO chooses to play the Q on the first round. It seems like this causes complications, but I may be missing something.

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=saq87ht96dckq9864]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] matchpoints, w/r (1D) 2C (dbl) 2H, (P) ?

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=st73haqtdj92caj54]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] matchpoints. 1S P 2S 3H, 4S ? What now and how close a decision is this?

Thanks for your replies. The full hand is too amusing to not post: [hv=d=e&v=n&n=skjhaqtxxxxdjtxxc&w=sxxxhxxdqxxxcxxxx&e=saqtxxxxxhxdxxcax&s=shkjxdakxckqjtxxx]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=shkjxdakxckqjt9xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Swiss teams. RHO deals and opens 2♠, alerted as natural and forcing to game. What is your plan with this hand?

There are no prime numbers-- only numbers Chuck Norris hasn't factored yet.

We do have a weak 2D available, sorry, should have mentioned that.