BunnyGo

I already sent you a PM, since I didn't want to distract the whole thread.

It was fun to read their endorsements since 1860.

40-1 on Michigan 30-1 on Penn.

FYP The others are using Gallop quite strongly, and generally don't weight state polls as heavily, which is a shame because confidence intervals on the state level are generally tighter. And I'll take bets if anybody wants to bet on Romney winning Michigan. Same for Pennsylvania.

The difference--at least to my mind--is that one of them using established and convincing statistics, the other is the reason for the joke: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Statistics aren't lies (full disclosure, I studied probability before I became a number theorist) but people who either: a) don't know better b) willfully don't disclose assumptions c) outright lie can mislead people by using math to make it seem like they are telling the truth. Nate Silver has always gone above and beyond to say when he is unsure of his results, what his confidence interval is, what it all means, and what assumptions he is making. I leave it to you to conclude what I think of Morris's work and thoroughness.

I'm not bidding, and the caddy on the other side of the room isn't either.

AH! Thank you! I hadn't put the first part and his idea together--I was so surprised about his opinion over 1NT that I didn't realize.

Cute.

Whack.

Dick.

"I have to be able to compete, because we have a fit in a minor suit"

It was matchpoints. IMPs defense is also interesting.

I didn't get to see the traveler, but the 2D bid was normal (was 54 and they had a 9 card spade fit). The others either got to play in 1NT or 3D all making.

Partner was 3244 with an aceless 14 count. I had a 2344 and thought he had to have at least 9 cards in the minors and/or a better hand--I probably overbid next, but held the QJxx of diamonds and KQTx of clubs.

Ok, thanks all. I passed this out, and 2♠ was cold for a 0 for us.

Gah! My error. We were 2821 Dummy was 3244 Edit: and yes, the pass throughout was weird, she must have seen her partner's 4 spade bids before.

You hold: Jx, AKxxxxxx (8 of them), xx, x The auction is: 4H-(4S)-AP Partner leads the heard Q and dummy hits with: AKx, Tx, AQJT, KQxx What do you do? Overtake and lead another heart? Overtake and lead a club? Duck and hope partner figures it out from your signal low? Something else? Edit: It was MPs. and fixed 14 card problem.

I've been known to be out of touch with "standard" as well--especially after time away from playing.

This was part of the conversation afterwards: What is the difference between X-X and Pass-X. You seem to be saying that X-X is penalty, my partner was saying that it was TO and that Pass-X was "don't even look at your cards, just pass it out p."

inverted minors, yes. I found out later in the night that 1D-2C was not GF.

One of us felt we should (or did take an action) and the other thought that passing out in 2S was not ideal, but not unreasonable given the options. I'm here to poll the community.

So your plan is to bid 2NT and try to leave partner in 3D?

You hold J9, KJTxxxx (7 of them), void, A8xx. Red vs White. Auction is: P-(1D)-1H (agree? other thoughts?)-(X) 1N-(2D)-2H (agree? other thoughts?)-(3D) X-(P)-now what? Thanks! Hands to come later.

You hold Qxx, Jx, 9xxxx, Axx and partner (in 3rd seat) opens a 15-17 NT. RHO then sticks in a 2D bid for both majors. Now what? If you pass or double, LHO will bid 2S, pass back to you. Now what? In particular, what would your different bids mean--the only thing you've discussed with your partner is that you play Lebensohl, and negative doubles, but this auction or similar was undiscussed. We had discussed that systems were on over X and 2C, excepting when 2C was majors in which case X of 2C was "it's our hand, any shape that isn't bidding naturally" according to my partner. Thoughts?

Hi all, So I got a game tonight with one of the better players in the state--but our ideas of "standard" are a little out of synch; he played best in NYC in the 60s, but he had success against experts then. I wanted to check some hands and see if they were me, him, or just time period differences and not enough time before the game to get every sequence straight (I'm sure at least one of them was me...but will post anyways because there are questions about it). We were playing some kind of 2/1 with mostly standard agreements, but nothing fancy. Hand 1: West dealer: 1D-(P)-1N-(2S) 3C-(P)-4D-AP Question 1: Roughly what is West's hand? Question 2: Roughly what is East's hand? Question 3: What is the difference between 3C, X, and 2NT by West? Hands to be posted tomorrow night. Thanks!