rogerclee

Back for one last hurrah. I miss you buddy. Also for any of the really old timers, I'll give this one up: Justin and I were maggieb.

Betting markets have just placed brexit as being above 50% probability, compared to a low of 29:2 near the end of the US trading day. FTSE 100 futures touching below -5% for the first time today. Edit: Now -6%

IMO rogue is the best nzoth variant at the moment, but none is particularly strong. Dislike the unreliability of nzoth paladin in even its 'good' matchups. Cairne is pretty nice anyway in a warrior meta though.

WotOG is pretty fun. Been playing pretty much only standard constructed, it's nice that there is no single meta defining deck at the moment, gives the game a lot more variety.

OK, good tips, thanks everyone!

I want to take a week or two after the Denver nationals to learn Go since my dad has been playing a lot at something like a club level, so for our Christmas gift to him my siblings and I are considering learning the rules of Go so we can play a game or two with him. Is there something like Fred's LTPB software but for Go? What are the best online resources for someone who does not even know the rules? Is there a standard best beginner Go book that all good players recommend?

Haha, not surprised you like to play it also. It's a nice fun game and even though it seems casual and luck-based, there is a lot of room for improvement for basically all players.

I used to play a lot, now it comes and goes for me, but I somewhat regret not taking HS more seriously during the beginnings of the game. I think it's a great game. I used to play pretty much only arena, but the constructed meta is at a great point right now so that's what I had been doing for a few months. I think TGT will be an overall improvement.

I like 4H, I'm unconvinced that 5H shows no diamond control, so I am a bit scared about some kind of AKxx Kxxx xx Kxx type hand.

FWIW I changed my mind to 4S and think this is not so close after all, we just need a little bit too much IMO to be driving to the 5 level and inviting 6.

To be honest I don't feel like my example hand is a particularly good 4H bid, just that to me, that is somewhere around my "line in the sand". Passing with 16(42) is ridiculous to me. A good rule of thumb is that if you can make game opposite a reasonably fitting weak NT, then you should bid. Hands like Jxx xx AQxx KQxx are just so normal, yet 4H is a great contract, and even when 4H is down, it usually means 3S was making. Tthey will take insurance really often in 4S also (maybe too often), which is fine with us, since my partner's cards are over theirs. The downside of course is that after 3S 4H 4S, partner will be doubling quite a bit too often, and if he is stretching for 5H, it's probably wrong. Once in a blue moon we will have to eat 4SXX. I can live with all this in exchange for getting to a making game opposite a random 12 count that would not even consider balancing.

I would bid 4H with x AKQTxx xxx xxx

I like double then 5S, once in awhile partner will be a champ and bid 6C for us. Second choice is to just bid 4S, which is pretty reasonable IMO. I think doubling and then bidding 4S shows a willingness to play hearts.

I didn't mean that the % of the time I get doubled in 4S when I am wrong to bid it is the only important factor, it's just that if my estimates are somewhat accurate then to me it is just really obvious to bid 4S and see what happens. There is also huge correlation in the sense that I have no problem with down 3 doubled, obviously it's a minus position but to me if I'm down 3 doubled then they were overwhelming favorites to make 420 or 450. To me it is unnecessary to think about IMP expectation down to the last detail, just that to me, 4S is a big winner anytime LHO has a max 2H opener, since it is really likely that nobody can double but they are making 4H. If my opponents were very aggressive then I would pass since the % chance that 4S is a phantom, doubled or not, is very high -- and the chance that I am doubled in 4S is also much higher than usual.

I would definitely bid, I think down 2 or 3 undoubled is definitely in the game when they make 4H. Just out of curiosity to the passers, suppose I told you that you will take 7 or 8 tricks in 4S. What percent of the time do you think you are getting doubled? I would think about 40% of the time we are down 2 and maybe 70% of the time we are down 3.