lorserker

I find this kind of quite hard. When thinking about it, I would like to distinguish two cases: case (1) partner has the !SA case (2) partner does not have !SA in case (1) when p has !SA i expect to make most of the time (maybe 80%), but I think p will have the !SA just about 30% of the time. In the other 70%, case (2), I expect it to be harder to make as we have to build 3 tricks in the minors. Maybe i will be successful about 25% of the time when we miss the !SA So, the total chance of success i estimate 30% x 80% + 70% x 25%, which is just above 40%, indicating that we should pass. All the probabilities above I estimated from intuition. The question is how accurate they are. We can check it by simulation. Simulating, I gave south 16-18 hcp, at least six hearts and no side suit of four or longer; the results. - p is 55% likely to have !SA - when p has the ace, we are about 60% likely to make - without the !SA we make around 40% of the time - our total chance to make 4 is slightly above 50%, so we should bid Important takeaways: - the initial probabilities i came up with from intuition are very wrong - i figured p is less likely to have the spade ace because the opps have more spades than p, so they are more likely to hold that card. seems that i didnt consider enough the strength partner showed. - i overestimated my chances in the happy case (with the spade ace) - i underestimated my chances when we don't have the spade ace - it seems better to bid, but the decision is very close.

usually when i talk about system, i am happy if we can quickly agree that 2SHD are weak, so we can move on and talk about some other parts of the system. maybe playing 2D as stronger than 2C is also good, but then there is a lot to talk about responses, so i usually don't suggest this. is this strong 2d still used by many people? in natural, i think weak both majors is nice. in precision, a loose three-suiter which can contain 5431 and is short in diamonds is nice.

i think that everybody i know plays a) i live in slovenia

he had Kx AQTxxx Ax Axx

thanks for the answers. i passed like a chicken, making 5 :) it was mp, so it seems that it was not completely unreasonable.

i think both are forcing. in both sequences responder will have four hearts. the first sequence maybe shows a hand that does not want to be passed in a takeout double, something with little defence like: x qjxx xx kqtxxx, or possibly something with chances for slam. anyway, opener should not think too hard about this, he just be descriptive and let his partner figure it out.

i agree, i was just thinking if we can justify playing the ten of clubs at trick two. if it loses to the stiff queen, and hearts are cleared we can fall back on the diamond finesse. i guess it's just the question of which is more likely: west being void in clubs, or west having stiff queen plus diamond king i don't know :)

on trick two, if you run the diamond jack and it loses, how will you get a second entry needed to pick up the clubs if west has something like: Axx AJTxxx Kxxx -

the line of defence is quite strange. cashing one lonely ace, then caashing another lonely ace the switching back to the first suit. what does west try to achieve by cashing his spade ace? im suspicious. what is the most likely type of hand for west?

is 2NT (instead of 3C) lebensohl?

the question is also how to tackle the clubs. if you play A then 10 you won't be able to pick up the suit if east has four clubs.

i also have this tendency of making the "clever pass". i dont remember gaining big victories like this, only looking silly on several occasions. i still remember that 10 years ago i passed a forcing bid in a relay precision sequence playing with gwnn. the reason why i made an account on BBF is to poll about it because i thought it was clever :) another time, playing against a top international we all looked up to i alerted a bid, he asked, and i explained "forcing" after which i immediately passed. everybody looked very disappointed at the end. the pointis that if you are covered by the system it will not be your fault even if it's wrong. otherwise you will remember your "cleverness" for a long time :)

I voted 5♦, but I like 4NT. IMO 5♦ rates to be a better contract even if partner does have four hearts because partner is very likely to hold at least three diamonds. Going for the higher scoring major game is not as relevant after this auction, is it? and undertricks are scored the same way in both major and minors :)

[hv=pc=n&s=sj763hk98dq8543c2&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=3c3hp]133|200[/hv] Are we good enough for a raise? What range is standard for the overcaller to have here? Thanks :)

http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?d=e&n=sqt753hq9djtcat76&s=sk2hk74daq6ckj854&s=e&a=p1n2h2np3cp3sp3nppp We end up in 3NT after a Lebensohl sequence. West leads the ♥J and the queen from dummy holds while East plays the eight (standard count) How do you plan the play further?