guidocc

Thanks for the clarification on the extra chances if hearts 4-1. I rechecked Line 1 and came up with this: Hearts 3-2 -- diamond duck fails with 5-1 diamonds(no stiff King) in either hand, about 14%; or 6-0 diamonds either hand,about 1.5 %; or 5-0 spades with diamond K, about 1% -- so... 100 - 14 - 1.5 -1 = 83.5% of 68%(3-2 hearts) + 0% of 28%(4-1 hearts) = 56.8% Hard to calculate exactly, but it seems the two lines are very close. I don't feel so bad now -- at least till the math mavens correct me again :)

Thanks to those who tutored me in math -- looks as if the diamond duck line is indeed better :)

BTW another two lines suggested were (1) Lead diamond Q. Interesting. (2) Spade to K, diamond to 10. Better than diamond duck?

Line 1: Win club A, cash heart Q, diamond to J. should now make if hearts 3-2 unless either opp has Kxxxx(app. 13%)or Kxxxxx(app. 1%). Chances of success with 3-2 hearts: 100% - 13% - 1% = 86% Chances of success with 4-1 hearts: 0% Overall chance of success: 86% of 68%(chance of 3-2 hearts) + 0% 0f 28%(chance of 4-1 hearts) = roughly 58% Line 2: Win club A, draw trumps. If hearts 3-2, cash spade Ace, then spade King; if Q doesn't fall, try diamond finesse. Chances of success with 3-2 hearts: app. 27%(Qx either hand) + app. 5%(stiff Q either hand) + diamond K onside(50%) = 82% If hearts 4-1, diamond finesse. Chances of success with 4-1 hearts: app. 18%(diamonds 3-3, K onside) + app. 3%(diamond Kx onside and with the short hearts) = 21% Overall chance of success: 82% of 68% + 21% of 28% = app. 55% + 6% = roughly 61% I took line 2, which failed. Line 1 would have worked(hearts 3-2, no bad luck in diamonds). My line seems pretty good, though it didn't impress my teammates :lol: Is my math off here? Would appreciate more feedback.

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sa1087xhqxdaq109xca&s=skj9hakxxxxdjxcxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP Bidding was 1H - 1S 2H - 3D 3S - 4C 4H - 4N 5H - 5N 6H - P 5H showed 2KC in ♠, no ♠Q; 5N asked for specific K's. Opening lead was a low club. Best line? (Heart spots are all low) [/hv]

A couple of years back a poster with username "hrothgar" was looking for a copy of S. Garton Churchill's 1979 book "Churchill Natural Bidding Style at Contract Bridge". I bought one from Paul Lavings' online book site (Australia) The Bridge Museum http://www.postfree.cc/ and received an email from him a couple of days ago that he had another copy in stock. I hope this might be of some interest.

I checked with the Bridge World, and got this email address as a possible source for a copy of the Churchill book: mailto:futilewill@aol.com Hope this helps

My bridge partner has the book right now -- I can't recall exactly but I think the Bridge World magazine may have offered the book and that's how I bought it. If I recall more details I'll pass them on.

I have recently been playing a 4-card major, weak NT system that dates back to the 30's, devised by S. Garton Churchill. It features very wide-range opening 1-bids[about 9/10 to 22/23 HCP] with a "utility" 1NT response that keeps the bidding open with a little something, but warns opener to tread lightly. Thus responses other than 1NT guarantee good stuff -- fit and/or controls/good suit, etc. From this base, all jump raises and rebids, or even simple changes of suit, are forcing unless responder has made the "utility" 1NT response. The system doesn't use Stayman, Blackwood, or any artificial bids[except the 1NT response], though it employs frequent exploratory[3-card suits] and informative natural bids in an effort to uncover the trick-taking potential of the hands. One example is the "picture jump" which shows AK+ in the suit of the jump and something good in partner's last bid suit. My partner and I have had excellent results at our local duplicate over the last couple of months. Here's a sample auction which we critiqued afterward to find improvements: Opener: S/Qxx H/Qxx D/AJ C/AKJ10x Responder: S/AKJxx H/AKx D/xxx C/Qx We bid as follows: 1C - 1S - 2NT[game force!] - 6NT This was above average, though we felt we should have reached the laydown 7NT. My partner realized he missed a chance by not jump-shifting immediately: 1C - 2S[strong] - 4C[picture jump:strong club suit headed by AK+, something good in spades] - 5H[picture jump: AK+ in hearts, something good in clubs - 7NT[13 tricks seem probable!] I read Churchill's 700-page 1979 book which presents his ideas in detail. This is not a crude system; it may not be artificial, but it is very scientific. I think you might find it fun. And the nearly-blank convention card is a bonus :-*