dank

Ahh... yes... no wonder I had rejected that line last night and calculated it at 66.5% by leading the ♥J from dummy ... sometimes your reasoning is better in the middle of the night than by the clear of day!

This hand is fascinating because there are 3 lines of play that are virtually identical %-wise: 1. Win the diamond in dummy and immediately lead ♥J. If necessary, you can take the club finesse against the ♣J if hearts are unfriendly. This line wins against hearts 3-2 onside, or the ♣J onside which is approximately a 66.5% chance. 2. Cashing ♣AK and ruffing with the ♥7 is approximately 66.5% if you intend to run the ♥J next. 3. Cashing ♣AK and ruffing with the ♥7 is also curiously approximately 66.5% even if you intend to ruff your ♣Q with the ♥J next if LHO doesn't show out. (I did not figure in the increased chances of an enemy ruff by them being able to discard effectively on the later round of clubs, which makes this line somewhat lower percentage than calculated). 4. Cashing ♣AKQ intending to ruff fourth club is approximately 59%. 5. Cashing ♣AK intending to ruff with the ♥J if LHO follows, then playing ♥A,Q is approximately 56%. Curiously, probably the most intuitive line (line #5) is by far the worst. At the table, lines 1 and 2 and 3 fail, and only lines 4 and 5 work (the inferior lines!). These odds change slightly, and in this case significantly, if you have clues about the distribution. For example, if you are fairly sure that clubs will never break worse than 5-2, lines 2 through 5 increase in value, and lines 2 and 3 increase by enough percentage points to make them preferable over line 1; alternatively, if you are certain that diamonds are 6=1 (singleton on your right) then line 4 gains a lot of value. I don't think I've ever seen a problem before where 3 distinct lines are so extremely close.

Here's a hand that I thought was interesting and caused a lot of discussion among the kibitzers. You've bid well and gotten to this small slam in hearts. The lead is a non-descript diamond. How do you play? [hv=n=sat743hj7da832ct9&s=s2haqt654dk5cakq3]133|200|Scoring: IMPs[/hv]

Yeah I don't know if my lead was right in theory but I don't always like leading from QJ9x when LHO is marked with strength. It sure worked in practice, and gave a cool ending.

South made a non-forcing 3♣ bid which actually got passed out, and then when he luckily got another call, tried to force with 3♥. This is inconsistent, and good bidders try to avoid these sequences at all costs. Having said that, South cannot pass 3♠. He knows the trump suit is not playable, looking at T9xx opposite only 3 card support. South should retreat to 4C which is at least playable. As for getting to 3NT, it seems you were planning to get there if partner has a diamond stop, and maybe meant 3♣ as forcing? How about this auction, which is much less ambiguous: 1C-P-1S-(2D)-X-3D-P-3NT-P-P-P. This is essentially the same as your auction, except it is unambiguous. If partner bids 3-major over your 3D ask, you can retreat to 4C which he can pass, although you might consider trying 5C anyway if he has no diamond wastage.

1NT is automatic. I bid clubs at my next turn over 2-red, bid 3C over 2S planning to raise spades next. The problem with responding 1S to 1H is that you bury your KQTxxxx to show your Qxxx, and most of the time 4S is a good contract partner will bid them 1H-1N-2S.

I play East for ♦Q. If West has QT dub that's life.

P-P-P-1S-(2D)-2NT if i have the auction right. That's 10-11, maybe a crappy 12, with usually a double diamond stop. Something like ♠Jx ♥Axx ♦AQx ♣Txxxx. If you start adding too much artificiality for no reason it will only hurt your bidding. Not to mention the number of disasters you and your partner will have whenever you are in disagreement of what a bid means.

Muah. muahahaha.

Justin's right, 4NT Keycard is the right call. I would not bid 4♦ here even if it "should" be forcing: from partner's point of view it looks like 2 quick heart losers in a minimum hand, doesn't it? So 4♦ is not forcing and would be a disaster if partner passes.

Most people play that over a passed-hand inverted minor bid opener can pass with a minimum (e.g. P-1♣-2♣-P is allowed), so there is no reason to bid 2NT unless you have some game interest. Therefore, the 2NT bid is invitational more than minimum, maybe somewhere around a very good 13 to 14 HCP or so.

The easiest way to deal with this problem is to play 1♦-3♣ as natural and invitational, which makes 1♦-2♣ game forcing. Then, all your rebids are just natural. But either way, 1♦-2♣-2♥ shows 4+ hearts, 5+ diamonds, and extra values for me, and a raise here to 3♥ absolutely guarantees 4 trumps. It says nothing about fast arrival, the only time i would jump to 4♥ over 2♥ is with a hand like ♠xx♥KQxx♦xx♣AQJxx.

♣J for sure. If the ♥K was right this time, don't let that influence you.

The choice is between a club and a diamond. A spade is out because of partner's suit-preference ♥5. Playing the ♦K doesn't rate to do much for you because if it holds (or loses) you will have no idea whether to continue trumps. Best must be a low club, and if partner doesn't have the king, he must have good diamonds (as he has terrible holdings in all black suits and bid a value-showing 1NT). So if declarer shows up with ♣K we can consider playing a diamond later. But most likely cashing 3 rounds of clubs is our best defense right now.

Pass. You bid 1S, partner took no action, bidding here is terrible and is the kind of thing that ends partnerships.