My experience has been that there are a number of hands where 2M in the 4(5)-3 fit makes and 2NT does not, or (less often) 2M makes 3 and 2NT makes 2. I would say this roughly offsets the losses, but in my experience people seem to defend worse against 2M than against 2NT, making this a slight win. I think you're probably right about 4333 hands; maybe opener should bid 2NT with 4333 instead of passing. Also I bet your invites are more sound than ours. That's consistent with the difference in our results.