My first post here. If it is in the wrong place, someone please tell me. I did search for this topic but found nothing. My question is on the solution to Bridge Master Level 2, Deal B19. The solution says the only play is to drop Q&J of trump. That is true for the given distribution. However, if the cards out were to lie 4/1 with a singleton honor, then the standard play for this combination (K, then low to 10) would succeed and playing K,A would fail. I estimate (not proper math) the probability of the given distribution is about 6.8% and the probability of 4/1 with singleton honor is about 11%. I would love a second opinion on this. Question 2: after leading the K and dropping the J, should one apply the principle of restricted choice and assume a 4/1 split?
