I'm not sure I buy any of the explanations presented here. I think considerations of Kx - K x x K - Kx are a good APPROXIMATION of what's going on. To be completely accurate, I think there has to be consideration of how all the remaining suits are likely to break in the opponents' hands. WARNING: MATH AHEAD. The location of 11 hearts and 15 non-hearts is already known, so let's say you will draw for the hand on the left with the remaining 2 hearts and 24 non-hearts. How many ways can you draw Kx of hearts? There are 2C2 = 1 way to draw Kx and 24C11 = 2,496,144 ways to draw the remaining non-hearts. How many ways can you draw no hearts? There are 2C0 = 1 way to draw no hearts and 24C13 = 2,496,144 ways to draw the remaining non-hearts. What about a stiff heart? There are 2C1 = 2 ways to draw a single heart (K or x) and 24C12 = 2,704,156 ways to draw the remaining non-hearts. # Ways to get a 2-0 split = 2,496,144 + 2,496,144 = 4,992,288 # ways to get a 1-1 split = 2,704,156 x 2 = 5,408,312 Probability of 1-1 split = 5,408,312 / (4,992,288 + 5,408,312) = 5,408,312 / 10,400,600 = 52.0%. :D