Blofeld

I think I pass. Not strong enough to demand action, and both the doubleton majors are putting me off doing anything. Other options, in my descending order of preference, are 3NT, 4♦ and double. 4♦ is the most likely to lead to a positive, but 3NT has the advantage that we may make game. Edit: Actually, I think that's a little harsh on double. Double was my first reaction when I saw the hand; it didn't take much thought to convince me that pass was better. But double essentially loses when partner bids spades, and goes OK otherwise. While partner bidding spades is the most likely outcome, it's definitely possible for something more favourable to happen. Compare to 3NT, which requires partner to have both a heart stop and some other stuff to have any chance of making.

Interesting hand. I agree with 4♠. As I see it, there are three reasonable meanings for 4NT: a) Natural, suggestion to play. :lol: RKCBW for clubs. c) General slam try - after all this is the only bid available below 5♣. The last of these seems by some way the most useful, so I'll assume that that's what 4NT means. I definitely want to accept. I think I also want to bid something useful en route as partner could still (just about) be looking for the grand. 5♦. Maybe this is overthinking things.

Pass is too deep for me with Q K9xx in support of partner's two suits.

I will say that there's a fairly easy optimality proof for the best solution(s).

I'm intrigued, now, Han - what did you think the problem was? There's obviously a range of interesting problems here.

That's right. Can anyone come up with a bound on the chance of winning? (Harder:) How well can you do with n people instead of 4?

This time, we have only four captives. They each have an independent 50% chance of getting a red hat, or else they get a black hat. They know everyone else's hat colour, but not their own. The rules of this particular contest are as follows: at a given moment, each person may either guess their hat colour or pass. The group wins or loses as a unit: they win if at least one person gets it right, and nobody gets it wrong, and lose otherwise. Guessing (or not) is simultaneous, and they may not pass information to each other. They are allowed to confer beforehand. What strategy should they adopt to maximise their chances of winning? [Apologies if I've left any ambiguities in the statement of that ... ask and I'll try to answer]

Well, let's see if we can work through the logic of this one: Partner bid 6♠ missing the A, K, Q and another spade. While she may have entertained it as a possibility, she can't have had the expectation of making. Therefore she must have bid it with the intention of sacrificing. Which means she expected 6♥ was making, which does rather suggest not much in the way of defence. There's no guarantee of 9 spades, but there's got to be some pretty extreme length to justify a bid like that.

Nice problem. I hadn't met that one before. I do know a neat relative of this problem. If anyone's interested, would people prefer I posted it here or started a new thread?

Hence the term, "mandatory falsecard".

Alright, I think an ace and a king is an exaggeration; however I would probably still pass with an added ace.

I think this is misguided, because I don't think there's a problem. People who are just learning to play are trying to hold a lot in their minds at once. While it would be obvious to us that the hand should never do anything but pass, it's reasonable that a beginner might take some time to work this out. Perhaps their train of thought might go something like: "Oh no! It's my turn to bid again! OK, what have I shown? At least 4 spades and at least 6 points, I think. What does partner's 2♠ bid mean? Is it forcing? No ... I don't think it can be forcing. I've only got 4 spades, and 3 ... 5 ... 7 points, so that's about what I've shown, isn't it? So perhaps I can pass?" So I will claim again: for a beginner, there doesn't seem to have been a break in tempo.

I think Han's reasoning makes sense.

There has been some discussion recently about bidding 4♠ over 4♥ in this kind of situation with light hands in order to protect partner. I'm mostly in the camp of bidding. However, even the contentious hands have: a] A spade suit b] Heart shortage c] More high card strength than this. You're about an ace and a king light for bidding on this shape. I can believe that 4♠ will occasionally lead to a good result, but that doesn't in any way, shape or form justify the bid. There isn't a choice here. Pass.

Sure I bid, after partner makes a double ...

Phil's suggestion has partner's 6♠ bid on a 5 card suit to the jack. Surely that can't be right - partner would bid 7♦ if anything with a 5-8 hand. Even if the 4♣ bidder is allowed to hold 4, partner is at most 6-7. I think 7-6 for our LHO is more likely. I bid 7♠ because I expect it to cost at most 1100 and probably less, whereas I think 7♦ is probably making.

In my experience, beginners think for quite a while about everything (and this is a perfectly reasonable thing for them to do). Sounds like the pass was in tempo for a player of that level. Result should stand. If the player calling the director didn't know the hesitator was a novice, then I'd sympathise and agree they'd been unlucky. If they did know, I don't think I'd have any sympathy.

This looks a normal 3♠ overcall. 4 is too rich for me, even at these colours.

I bid here. I don't think there should be much difference in strength between direct and balancing seat action over a preempt, especially at this level. I have (very) short clubs, which makes it likely that partner will not have shortage. Despite eight points, I have a lot of playing strength here. I do think that bidding will go wrong a fair proportion of the time, but I think it will be less frequent than pass going wrong. Incidentally, if we pass now we're never playing in 4♥, are we?

I'd probably bid 1♠ to begin with, but I don't mind double at all. Now I think the options are pass, double and 2NT, in approximate order of my decreasing preference for them (not that I'm happy with pass, but it seems the least dangerous). whereagles, are you really serious in suggesting selling this hand as a strong single-suiter with hearts?

5♥. Partner's pass asked for our involvement and we can't be much more suitable than this for play at the 5-level. I might have bid 4♦ the previous round.

I might have doubled 1♥.

Right, I took a similar length of time. But knowing that there is a 100% line allows me to focus on looking for that and dismiss out of hand anything which could go down, rather than trying to consider lots of lines and work out which has the highest chance of success.

Very neat. Pretty sure I wouldn't find this at the table. :(

If I have an opening for weak majors[1], I make it ... I'm not sure what auction people are particularly afraid of here. I can certainly see a few possible bad outcomes, but also lots of good ones. Else, pass is stand out. [1] Whether I like the convention or not is another matter entirely. Here, this is what I'm playing.