Ronald_21

At our table -against a very agressive youth pair- the bidding went 3♣ pass and now the partner of the 3♣-bidder thought for about 20 seconds before passing. Does it make a difference? (edit: didn't see Han's latest comment before posting)

Isn't the Gardener NT a Brown Sticker Convention (no known suit).

I don't see anything better then the heart finesse: Win the spade ace, heart to the jack, ace of hearts (discard a spade), spade king, spade ruff, diamond to the king. Then ruff another heart at the first opportunity (pull another trump first when the diamond ace is played rightaway).

I did a simulation yesterday and clubs was the best lead (diamonds was second best, but it was not close).

RHO takes the C, returns S, you cross to hand with H A and ruff C. RHO wins you H or D and plays a 4th Club and you A is ruffed by LHO? You do not win the spade in dummy so you still have the heart ace to pull the trumps. (edit: sorry, I did not see that Roland had already replied)

Last night I did a simulation (5000 hands) with the 12-14 hand holding 1 to 3 spades, 2 to 4 hearts, 2 to 4 diamonds and 4 or 5 clubs. It appeared that there was not much difference between 1NT and 2S if partner would never raise 1S with a 3-card spade support. Obviously the more partner raises 1S with 3-card support, the more 1NT becomes the superior contract.

I guess I wasn't awake yet. However, assuming hearts are 4-1 and the spades are breaking, I can make when: - West has the king of diamonds (with any number of diamonds). - East has the king of diamonds and diamonds are 3-3. - East has 4 (or 5) diamonds to the king and west has the 10 of diamonds. At the third trick play a heart to the ace, finesse a heart and pull the last trump. Spade to the ace. Diamond to the queen. Assuming the queen holds the trick, play a high spade and a spade to hand and play another diamond. If west plays small, I will finesse again. If west plays the 10 of diamonds, I go up with the ace and continue with a small diamond.

Are opps good enough to always drop the 9?

I voted for the Queen, but then I wondered what the outcome of a simulation would be. The results were interesting.

It feels normal to pass 3NT if you could be sure that partner has a stopper in every suit. However, simulations often lead to surprising results, so I did a simulation of 1000 deals with the strong hand having at least an ace, king or queen in every suit. The results were: Clubs 11+tricks: 66% 12+: 21% Total tricks available: 10788 Hearts 10+tricks: 66% 11+: 32% 12+: 6% Total tricks available: 9917 NT 9+tricks: 69% 10+: 38% 11+: 6% Total tricks available: 8872 The percentages and total tricks for the heart and club game did not change much. Not surprisingly there was a significant improvement in the NT-game percentages. Clearly in a MP-game hearts still stand out by a mile. Even in a team game hearts is probably the winner. NT makes game more often in 3% of the cases, but hearts makes a trick more per board (although a 1000-board simulation may not be enough for such a conclusion, because the differences are so small). Psychologically in a teams game it's probably better to pass 3NT. Everybody will understand a pass of 3NT even when it goes down, but when 4H goes down while 3NT makes, I bet your teammeates won't be happy with you :( ;).

4NT for me, it looks like 6 will most of the time be on a finesse at worst.

The odds are not good enough to be in 4S.

If you play 4C as keycard (which is the way I play it with my favourite p's), then 6C is a reasonable shot if you hear 4 keycards, making 12 tricks in just over 50% of the cases. If you play RKC 1430, and you hear 4H (3 keycards), then in a MP-game the best strategy would be to pass 4H, making 10+tricks in 70% of the cases (5C made 11+tricks in 75% of the cases).

I ran a simulation of 1000 deals, the results were: Clubs 11+tricks: 63% 12+: 20% Total tricks available: 10735 Hearts 10+tricks: 66% 11+: 31% 12+: 6% Total tricks available: 9909 NT 9+tricks: 48% 10+: 24% 11+: 3% Total tricks available: 8293 A little surprisingly 4H looks like the best spot.

I did a (limited) simulation with Dealmaster Pro/Deep Finesse and passing 1NT made 7 or more tricks in 32% of the cases. Trying to get to a major made 8 or more tricks in the major in 52% of the cases. In my sample in 52% of the cases there was a 44-fit, in 41% there was a 43-fit and in 7% a 42-fit. With a 44-fit 2M made in 77% of the cases and 1NT in 23%. With a 43-fit 2M made in 29% of the cases and 1NT in 40%. With a 42-fit 2M made in 1% of the cases and 1NT in 40%. Clearly to try and play in a major is a lot better than passing 1NT.