Trumpace

I am surprised to hear that. Cricket rules!

Why is finding the ♦Q more likely than finding the ♠K with partner? One reason I can think of is, if partner has enough points to have a King, then he can have the ♦Q and any Jack instead, which makes the ♦Q more likely than any K. (I don't think is very simple reasoning, maybe it is for most advanced players) On this hand the above reasoning works fine, but I think I have seen authors state it (Q easier to find than K) without any supporting reason against game contracts etc where we can account for partner not holding any Jacks (we hold them!) Are there any obvious reasons? (point count is not too convincing, what is 1 point here or there?)

I'll bite. Scenario 2: drop the ♣A on the first trick and go for a double squeeze.

Deciding to cover not more than one third of the time, _is_ mixed strategy, isn't it? :)

Yesterday, I was kibitizing a teams matchs between experts and world class. This was one situation. [hv=n=sa93hdc&w=sk2hdc]266|200|[/hv] Spades were trump. Declarer is south, who had opened 1S sometime (showing 5 or more spades) Declarer needs all spade tricks to make the contract. Declarer led the ♠Q and the west (a world class player) played low without a flicker! Can you explain why/why not is this a good play? (assume Apriori odds, i.e no other information about other suits is known).

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Eeks. Sorry. The spade spots weren't that good. Have modified the original post.

You are in 4H in the following: [hv=n=saj43h9765djt2ck3&s=sk765hkqjt3dkc742]133|200|Lead ♠T[/hv] You are in 4H after this bidding: (South dealer) 1H-2C-2H-P-2S-P-4H-PPP West leads the ♠T. You win with the A and immediately lead the ♦J. The ♦K wins! Now you play ♥K, which west wins. He next wins the ♣A and leads a low club. Now what, you lucky dog?

How about a card on the floor button? Maybe let the host decide if it is now East's turn to get 14 cards or both the Jack of hearts.

I agree with Justin here. Here, both East/West had all the information required to make the right play. OK, so west led the ♣J. If East had thought a little, he could "save" partner from the "horrible" ♣J lead by overtaking and returning a diamond for a ruff. On the other hand, If E-W are regular partners, the blame lies with West. He knows that East does not think! So he must play a low ♣. :D Maybe it was declarer's fault. He didn't play the ♣Q on the J :( On a serious note, why do people think that leading a low club would have helped? East, who does not seem to think would probably have tried to cash a second ♣ for the setting trick.

You are right!

According the Frank stewart the line that should be taken is: Cash ♦A and then duck a diamond (planning to lead toward the ♦Q later). This works when ever West does not have Kxxx, Kxxxx or Kxxxxx in diamonds and is better than a simple finesse. I think ducking a round of diamonds first and then leading toward the ♦A on the second round is better than the suggested line. This way, we will know if diamonds split 5-1 (Kxxxx with West) and we can then try for 3-3 clubs or a major suit squeeze on East in case West holds 4 clubs (haven't worked out in detail, so could be wrong) by playing a low diamond instead of the A on the second round of diamonds and keeping diamond control (we need to duck 3 diamonds and a club for the squeeze to operate).

Problem with this line is that, when you duck the second major, East could win and shift to a diamond.

I mistakenly wrote 2005 instead of 2006. Source is Frank Stewart Column Jan 17, 2006.

You are South and are in 3NT after 1NT - 3NT. Assume E-W are vul. Rubber bridge. West leads the ♣J and you see... [hv=n=sk65ha62d753caq42&s=sa42hk53daq42ck73]133|200|Lead ♣J[/hv] What is the best line for 9 tricks?

LHO has atleast 2 diamonds. If diamonds are 2-2 almost any play will do. Running the Q works when RHO has singleton J or T. Playing low to the 9 works when RHO has singleton K. So I will run the Q.

Does anyone know of any hands where the opening lead was(or had to be) chosen in order to avoid a squeeze on the defense? Would be interesting to see such hands and the reasoning behind the lead. Hope this will be both instructive and entertaining.

What did you have in mind, Frances?

N-S are vul. Do you want 500 to miss out on a vul game?

My first thoughts on seeing this hand was "cross ruff!". We have 5 top tricks in the non-trump suits and exactly 8 trumps. Making it 13. But, there is a problem with that... We cannot ruff more than three times in each hand! We need to ruff at least 4 times in one hand for the crossruff to succeeed... A better approach, seems to establish a club for a diamond discard so that we can ruff a diamond in dummy. We can succeed if an opp has Qx clubs or Qxx of clubs and xx of trumps. Win ♦A, club to A, trump to hand, ♣K discarding diamond, if ♣Q hasn't dropped, ruff a club in dummy, trump to hand, ♣J, discarding diamond and pray that it does not get ruffed. Diamond ruff, AK spades and spade ruff to draw last trump. Enjoy last club. I can't seem to find any better line.

What if East is 3-6-2-2? East can get a club discard on the third round of diamonds and can ruff your ♣A. Agreed, this is unlikely as East would probably have acted over the 1♣ bid. (they cash their heart tricks first, go to West hand with a diamond and get a club ruff, but is that giving opps too much credit?)

What you say definitely make sense, there is probably more than 60% chance of making 9 tricks while < 15% chances of going down. If 2S just making is an average score, going for 9 is probably the right thing to do. The reason I want to play safe is that I expect Average++ by playing safe (especially in the clubs i usually play), so 60% risk might not be worth it... [EDIT] The figures above are wrong... Ignore this post.

In matchpoints, against expert defence I would probably play safe for 8 tricks (but then I would have gotten a spade lead, wouldn't I?) and collect +110. I expect some tables to go down in 2S, some to be in 1NT. Moreover it seems to be too complicated(for me at least) to calculate the odds for the 2-3 different lines, especially on the table. If I play a low club, opps can cash two diamonds. If clubs are 3-3 they will probably cash their heart tricks now and hold you to 8. If clubs are 4-2, they will return a spade. Well this is assuming 'expert defence', since I am not an expert I can only assume that the expert can 'see through the backs of my cards' and try to play accordingly.

♥J? If clubs divided 3-3 or diamonds divide 3-2 we are making it. In case they both dont, we can try for a miinor suits squeeze. The ♥J rectifies the count. The only problem is a spade return after losing ♥J, we have to decide what to discard from dummy. Discarding a diamond gives up chances of picking up 4 diamonds with West and 4 clubs with East. Discarding a club gives up 3-3 clubs. Maybe I shouldn't have played three rounds of spades.. probably ♥J at trick 2 would have been better. Anyway, I just woke up, so I am not even able to tell if I am way off (which is probably the case)

I am being nitpicky... 8 tricks arent assured yet! What if one of the opps has a club void? and about the ♣A... If we assume no opp has a club void, then ♣A must be cashed. Say East is 5-5-2-1 You lead a heart at trick 2. East wins and returns a diamond. Which west wins. West cashes a third round on which goes East's singleton club. Now West plays the ♣K. You cannot avoid losing 2 club tricks, 2 diamonds and 2 hearts now. This is in principle similar to the cross ruff advice: cash the requisite number of side suit winners before embarking on a cross-ruff. So I think the best play is ♦A, ♣A then a heart off the table (you _did_ ask for the best line of play to 8 tricks ;) )