kevinwm

My thoughts: 1,2) South is too strong for an UnNT bid. Double (for takeout) is the only appropriate bid. 3) I would not have bid 3!s. That jump shows a weak hand to me, length but less than 6 points. I would simply bid 1!s and see how the bidding progresses. 4) 4!c is not forcing. Unfortunately your 3!s bid took away bidding room - as South I would be tempted to force game either with a 4!d cuebid, or by jumping to game... but your 3!s bid would indicate no game interest to me (other than if we have a spade fit). 5) East's 1!d bid is pretty weak, even for a 3rd seat weak bid. Knowing that (through alert or experience) would cause me to lean towards a game jump as S.

I just ran the numbers to confirm my instincts - the probability distribution for North's spade count is below. There's a 40% chance that North has a singleton or void, and a 77% chance that he has a doubleton or less. I like the odds on 5!d, and possibly even slam. North spade count probability: 0: 9.2% 1: 31.4% 2: 36.7% 3: 18.3% 4: 4.0% 5: 0.4% 6: 0.01%

There is ZERO chance I would pass this. The choice is between 3nt, 5!d, and some sequence designed to look for slam. Some also depends on partnership agreements though. 3nt is the riskiest of these choices. Unless North has a second entry to hand, that long suit is likely to be useless. 5!d is very likely to make - with a long !s suit missing AK, North is likely to be short and will be able to trump. 6 trump tricks and 5 side tricks and it makes. With my partners, I'd be tempted to bid 5!c showing control and slam interest. With min, partner can bid 5!d signoff. With !s stop, we probably have 6.