dokoko

I see no good reason to be able to pass opener's 1NT rebid on a (possibly very) unbalanced hand. 1♥-1♠;1NT showing a strong hand or ♥+♠ seems not to be the best Gazzilli variation available. A very weak responder should return to 2♥ after the Gazzilli rebid if at all possible - losing the ♠ fit opposite the limited hand. So IMO it's better to show ♠ with a bid of 2♣ or 2♦ (as you prefer) and to include ♥+♣ into the 1NT Gazzilli rebid.

Ekren 2♥ is far more embarrassing to defend against, so this would be my choice, eg: 2♣ = wk2♦ or strong 2♦ = wk2♥ or strong 2♥ = wk both majors 2♠ = wk2♠

I bid 3♠ - forcing. If this were nonforcing, I should have used a forcing raise instead of double! That said I think 3h should be FG with 5+ hearts (with 4 bid 3d asking partner to bid 3h with 4). With less than a game force (opposite a 2-level negative double) opener may choose from 2h, 2s and 2nt.

Do we really discuss in Expert-Class forum how a doubled undertrick is scored??????????? ROFL

I have re-calculated the odds of North being short in diamonds (about 9% as you say) - holding 7 known cards South is about twice as likely to be short in diamonds as North with 6 known cards. So you are right that ducking the first heart is the better line. You should, however, draw one round of trumps before ruffing out the diamonds; otherwise you also lose when South is short in diamonds (and not void in clubs). You cannot afford a second round as you need 2 trump entries to dummy after the first ruff if diamonds if they split 4-1. You are wrong that you can survive a diamond shortness with North. The defense takes a heart, the ruff and ♠A to beat the contract.

When you start to play the hand, you only know of a probable 3-7 heart break from the bidding. Drawing trumps then leading spades twice towards dummy is a 87.5% shot (probabibility for S holding both honors: 6/16*5/15). Even knowing the 3-0 club break the probability of success is still about 80% (21/26). I don't think any of the lines proposed beats this.

If West's double is for takeout (as it should be), East cannot pass (sure he can if asking for trouble). If West's double is for penalty, he should bid 2h instead (or pass if timid.

We play a Meckwell structure using transfers to second suit after 1NT-2♦-2♥ and 1NT-2♥-2♠: 2NT= 4+ clubs FG 3♣= 4+ diamonds FG 3♦= 4+ other major FG Opener bids one of responder's suits with fit and values or 3NT otherwise. Responder may show shortness with fit and extra length otherwise. 1NT-2♦-2♥-2♠ asks for min/max and support. 1NT-2♣-2x-2♠ shows an invitation with 5 spades. So you don't need a natural 2NT rebid after a transfer. The 2nd round transfers are used not only with slammish hands, but also with hands looking for the best game; they should not be used if 5 of a minor is out of reach. IMO this is a structure for expert use, but go ahead and try it if you think you can master it. There are several other structures available on the web. None of these will bid your hands for you, however. You will have to judge when to go past 3NT, which fit to show with a double fit etc. And you will have to remember the structure well; any accident will make it hard to profit on balance.

I lose to Txx with East, you lose to xx and x with East which is a bit more likely.

That's exactly my point. I would probably open in first and surely in third seat.

Nothing depends on whether 2♣ shows invitational values initially. Double after Stayman promises an invitational or better hand with support for the unbid suits. Doubling with a weaker hand is telling the same story twice (as a weaker hand has to have support for both majors). East didn't double 3♣, which he could have done if interested in 3M. Playing West's double as penalty would be a stupid choice; it's takeout which East is free to convert if appropriate.

This is better than my line when West guards the hearts (double squeeze improves on ♥-♦ squeeze). But when both opps follow twice in hearts without ♥Q falling, you should play for West to have the missing ♥x rather than East have it and West 4 or more spades. If West shows out on the third heart you have to fall back on the major suit squeeze.

If 1♠-2♣-2♠ is nonforcing, then there is'nt much to do. You should bid 1♠-2♣-3♠-4♠ and miss an easy 6♣ or 6♠ on a slightly different layout. And you should change your system. Otherwise, i.e. the sequence is forcing, 3♠ shows a better hand with a better suit (standard is not more than 1 loser opposite a void - setting trump). Whatever you play, consuming one and a half levels of bidding with moderate extras without a clear definition of your hand is asking for trouble.

If you want to reduce the hand to the heart suit, trade the ♠3 for the ♣5. If South has only three spades, the best line is to cash the ace, then run the 9. 1. After finessing ♥J successfully you should cash South's black suit winners, if ♥Q hasn't appeared. In that case either hearts are 3-3 or RHO guards them. If you find out that he also guards the spades, you can squeeze him in the majors: Cash all your minor suit winners ending in dummy; on the last one discard your spade if not good. 2. If everyone followed in spades you have to guess who has the length. If noone showed out on the clubs, odds favor split guards. 3. If LHO guards the hearts, there is no squeeze in the majors against him, so the double squeeze in the only line. 4. Should a defender have 5 or more diamonds together with 4 or more hearts he will be squeezed on either line. Note: With five spades and ♥Q10xx East should play ♥Q to the second round; otherwise cashing the spade winners makes the winning line obvious. Declarer should then cash a third round of hearts finding out that ♥Q was a false card. If he puts East on the hand he has, he might execute a major suit squeeze by keeping the spades and cashing the minor suit winners, discarding the heart if not good on the last one. On a diamond lead you have to win in hand and play for successful finesse. If this works, you have a choice of squeezes: - a ♥-♦ squeeze: cash ♥K, then black suit winners ending in hand (discard a spade on the last club). Any defender holding 5+ diamonds and 4+ hearts will be squeezed. - a ♠-♦ squeeze: cash ♥K, then black suit winners ending in hand (discard a heart on the last club). Any defender holding 5+ diamonds and 4+ spades will be squeezed. - a ♠-♥ squeeze: cash ♥K, then minor suit winners ending in dummy (discard a heart if not good on the last one). RHO holding 4+ hearts and 4+ spades will be squeezed. If LHO shows out on the third heart the last one seems best otherwise you have to choose from the other two (placing RHO with the spades and trying to squeeze the opponent with the shorter clubs).

Pass. As we are favourites to own the hand (I have a better hand than RHO), I try to avoid misleading partner.

GIB cannot make deceptive plays on purpose. As playing low cannot gain in double dummy play, GIB won't do it.

West may - bid Stayman, then pass 3C; or - pass 1NT, then dbl 3C for takeout. but should not bid, then double. All vul is the worst vulnerability for balancing at imps for the partscore. If partner takes out the double your action wins imps if both sides make 9 tricks somewhere, which is rather unlikely. In fact, holding both majors opener would probably have doubled 3C. Opposite a genuine inv+ hand 3C figures to go down, while there might be no fit our way and 3NT is far from certain. On the actual layout, taking out the double to 3H will be no fun and might cost 500 as well.

lol There are surely flaws in any calculating method, but you are as likely to profit from them than to suffer. If your opps bid and make a 20% slam without a fault of yours it's even more unfair but that's the game. Concentrate on playing well and results will come. Or accept that you need a big portion of luck to win and complain when it's not there to make up for your faults.

2♠ is the only sensible call. A passed hand has no reason to cuebid without a fit. And even opposite a balanced 12-count game is far from certain. If partner passed an opener, it's his problem not mine. If you bid anything else with me as a (passed) partner, you will have to play in game opposite a balanced 10-count.

Playing West for the Queen of hearts seems right for the reasons you give. I would not have played ♠A, however. When West shows out on the first diamond, you can be pretty sure of his 3=4=0=6 or 4=3=0=6 shape. He is favorite to hold the ♥Q but may overcall without it. East's heart discard is bad play, he should hold on to his hearts whatever he holds. Would you have played the hearts as you did without his discard? You should, but that risks going down if he started with ♥Qx. Playing for the ♥Q with West before cashing ♠A will get you the same 11 tricks if you are right, but assures of 10 tricks if you are wrong (East has no club left!). So while with the discards given you can be sure of 11 tricks, you couldn't be sure to reach that situation. (If North's hearts were ♥A1074, your line of play is best as you need to squeeze West down to three hearts for 11 tricks!)

I don't know whether it's good defense to duck two rounds of clubs. If East does there seems to be a sure line: Win trick 2, overtake ♣Q and play two more rounds (discarding hearts), then run ♠Q. - If East has ♠K you have nine tricks. - If West wins this trick and returns a spade, win in dummy and play a club discarding heart from hand. You lose 1 trick in each suit. - If West wins and returns a heart, run it to the jack (here you might have to guess East's singleton honor if any). As East cannot have more than one heart, you will again lose no more than 4 tricks. I would possibly choose another line if I wasn't told that East would duck twice.

so you rather place him with 7-4?

So if I understand right you play 1. ♥5TJA 2. ♠A235 3. ♠8♣x♠JK 4. ♣xAx5 5. ♥9247 6. ♥63Q♠6 7. ♣KJx4 8. ♠7 over to you

IMO winning is better than playing "correctly". Even if every decent player will play low smoothly I have to consider the odds that the present opp is a non-decent one. That said I guess most of the technical arguments are correct. However, should my partner criticize me for preferring a 56% to a 58% line, he might as well look for a new partner.

I don't try to eliminate as it probably won't work when spades don't break and there should be no problem if spades behave.