Wackojack

Where is the evidence? Do you have special inside information from sex workers? Promiscuous gay men? Doctors or nurses? Or are you a team sportsman with "shower" experience or perhaps an academic researcher doing a special study to confirm or otherwise this widely held view?

[hv=pc=n&s=stht964d632cqjt53&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1hp1sp2dp2hp4hppp]133|200[/hv] Local teams match. They vul we not. Your lead? Please do a "Nige" and give marks out of 10. If you think this is a no brainer then 10 for your choice and anything else zero

Playing UDCA and giving count with 3 (xyz) cards when partner plays a top hon. What is normal? Play: y then z? x then z? x then y? If you always play the highest x first and partner continues, do you choose y and z next according to suit preference? I am sitting East and maybe should have rased to 3♣but stuck with that now. [hv=pc=n&n=sj974hkd87654cqj7&e=skh97432dat32ct85&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=pp1s2c2sppp]266|200[/hv] Partner leads A♣. You play UDCA with an agreement that you play attitude on K and play count on Ace. Would you automatically play the 10?

Thanks for that Wesley. I conclude that the intrafinesse gives slightly better odds of success when you are reasonably certain that west will play the King with Kx. At the table the intra did not occur to me so it went 42QK. Down! West had ♠J2, ♥J1053, ♦K762, Q76. East had: ♠K107, ♥A4, ♦QJ984, ♣J105. So the intra would have worked and with east having ♥Ax, I could have made this poor contract.

Cmon if you plan to ruff a club then you will lose 2 spades a club and a heart. The point is that I did say that East West were not strong players. So if west ducked any spade smoothly, then I am CERTAIN she would not have Kx, unless she was completely asleep. Yes chances of making this contract look slim but you have to try. All I am trying to ascertain is that based on the CERTAINTY that West would not duck from Kx, then which play gives me best odds? My working says intra finesse. Am I right? This is not a rheotorical question. I am genuinely seeking expert opinion on this.

♠ Q3 ♥ K986 ♦ A1053 ♣ AK3 ♠ A98654 ♥ Q72 ♦ -- ♣ 9842 You are in South in 4♠. West leads 2♦. You ruff in hand. How do you maximise the chances of limiting your trump losses to one? EW are not strong players. Play the 9 (or 8?) initially. If West plays low you assume that west would have played the King from Kx. Do you run the 9 or play the Q? West East Combs Number of losing tricks by: Advantage Run 9 Play Q Run 9 Play Q Kxx JT 1 2 1 1 Jx KTx 2 1 2 2 Tx KJx 2 1 2 2 JT Kxx 1 NA NA KJx Tx 2 2 1 2 KTx Jx 2 2 1 2 Jxx KT 1 2 2 Txx KJ 1 2 2 JTx Kx 2 1 2 2 This says that the number of combinations favouring the intra finesse = 6 against playing the Q =5. Am I correct? Sorry this did not come out as a table as I intended.

A good general rule is that 4♣4♦is minorwood when supporting the minor or the suit has already been agreed or implied and is interrogating a hand that has limited itself to a 3 point range. Otherwise it is natural. A strong club system usually builds this situation more efficiently.

Just looked at a random line of 20 on line players. These are the %. Expert 30% Advanced: 30% Intermediate: 20% Private: 10% World Class: 5% Novice; 5% Beginner: 0% Aren't we lucky to have such a high standard a of players on BBO? I suppose all the intermediates are playing in the Spingold and in Brighton.

So far no one has speculated on what South’s bid of 3♣ could mean. Normally I think it should mean “Have you got a stop in clubs for 3NT?” But does it mean this here? This is how I see things: South did not overcall 1NT, so at that stage could be: (i) balanced 8-14 lead directing (ii) balanced 15-17 with no club stop and 5 or 6 diamonds (iii) unbalanced 8-17. The points given are inevitably approximate. North cues 2♣ which would normally shows at least 3 card club support and about 11+ (good 10?) . Then South with: (i) would bid 2♦ with 8-11. With a club stop and a good 12 or 13 might try 2NT or 3NT with 14. With no club stop South might try 3♣ with a good 13 or 14. So asking for a club stop. (ii) would bid 3♣ asking for a club stop (iii) would bid 2♦ with 8-11 and 5 cards, probably 3♦ with 6 cards. With 12-17 and a singleton major would bid 2 in the other major. A singleton club is not possible unless having a distribution like 3-3-6-1 but again 3♣ here would be asking for a club stop. So we have to conclude that 3♣ has to be asking for a club stop. So North with a balanced 12 must do as he is told and bid 3♦.

I agree that would be the general approach with Acol. Here is a problem hand: If your Acol style is to open 1♠, then [hv=pc=n&w=skq75h98dkj85caqt&e=sj2ha7dqt972ckj52&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1s2hdp3hp]266|200[/hv] With the obvious heart lead 3N or 5♦ have no chance of making.(Almost) If you Acol style is to open 1♦ 1♦-(1♥)-? Whatever your method of showing an invite with 5 card support and no 4 card major you wont fare any better. Or if you play 15-17 5M 1NT-(2♥)-? Just because Acol has a problem it doesnt mean that other systems do any better.

Oh yes of course, he would have known that. :unsure: Cancel that bit of text. Nevertheless it would be in character for Papa to finesse invoking the principle of restricted choice. Terence Reece explained it in his 1958 book "The Expert Game". Maybe Papa gave him the idea. I have just googled this from: http://terencereese.tripod.com/the_principle_of_restricted_choice.htm "One interesting thing too that I have observed over the years, is that most club players holding J10 doubleton will play the jack, as the obvious false card………something else to take on board!This means that at my local club, if the Jack appears I will play for the drop, if it is the 10, I will finesse."

[hv=pc=n&w=sqt76hqdaq653cjt8&e=s985hk82dk987cakq&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=1np2cp2dp3nppp]266|200[/hv] At the Griffin's weekly duplicate, this hand sealed the victory of Hideous Hogs team over Papa the Greeks team. At both tables the bidding and lead were identical. South led the 6♥ to North's Ace who then returned the J♥ taken in dummy with the King. Papa the Greek could see that if he initially played the K♦ he could bring in all 5 diamonds without loss when South has all 4. So he played the King and South played the 2 and North the J. Then he played the 9. Of course Papa could see the blockage in the suit and that he had to take a view on who held the 10. Papa was an expert in bridge and mathematics and knew that the Rule of Restricted choice now favoured playing South for the Jack since in theory North was just as likely to have played the 10 with J10 doubleton as the Jack. Accordingly he ran the 9♦ (South playing the 2) and sadly it lost to North's 10. 4 more hearts tricks followed plus the two top spade tricks meant that Papa was down 4. At Hideous Hog's table Walter the Walrus was sitting North. The Hog "knew" that Walter with J10 would never play the 10. Walter would want to give the impression that he held a singleton and the play of the 10 when holding J10 looks far less singletonny than does the Jack. The Hog also knew that Papa sitting in the same seat would apply the rule of Restricted Choice and finesse. The Hog calculated that North was slightly more likely to have started with J10 than with J singleton because there is an extra space in the North hand to have the 10. So he played his Queen and the 10 dropped. Rueful Rabbit who was Hog's partner looked very concerned when Hog next played a small diamond to the 8 in dummy instead of cashing his Ace but was relieved to see the 8♦ holding the trick. Scoring up Papa was livid. Rueful Rabbit was happy but puzzled. Luckily he thought Papa must have miscounted diamonds because who would finesse when you have 10 cards in the suit with AKQ? Inspired by Wank's comment.

Agree too. It is still a shock to me that I could not persuade her in the later chat that when the opps 4 cards were found to break 2-2 that the suit was not blocked and she could make 9 tricks.

The daily unibridge tourney like to keep its reputation as a top BBO tourney and thus for many years has stopped admitting new members unless they were stars. I like to keep my membership going and play in this tourney once or twice a year. Looking at a list of players looking for a partner I asked an "expert" who had helpfully provided a good list of conventions on her profile and she accepted my invitaion. The is hand came up very early: [hv=pc=n&w=sqt76hqdaq653cjt8&e=s985hk82dk987cakq&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=1np2cp2dp3nppp]266|200[/hv] South led the 2♠. North took with the Ace and switched to the A♥ and J♥ which partner took with the King. She then led the K♦, South playing the 2 and North the 10 and then the 9♦and South played the 4. With no hesitation she played the Ace and the Jack dropped. Equally as quickly she then played the Q♦and then the 5 to her 7. Next she played the 8[spades, South rose with the King , returned a heart and then North took his remaining 5 heart tricks and thus the contract was off by 3. This is a record of the chat: ….: syp ….: i should take my ace KQ so sy W: 2-2 its easy ….: i could only take 8 top tricks without letting them in on !! or !c or any suit W->: you have 9 tricks when !ds break 2-2 W->: 9 is good so not blocked ….: but i couldnt take your 5. ….: see my hand i couldnt get rid on my higer !d ….: higher* W->: 9 is good easy ….: not when they get in W: !ds 2-2 ….: yes but how did i get back to your low one W->: 5 top !ds they are NOT blocked +3!cs + 1!!h ….: there is not please look my higher ones ….: lets just agree to disagree ….: I'm a nice person What shocks me is that she evidently could not see how to make her contract even in the post mortem. Even an intermediate who might not look at the spots in the play, I would expect to see immediately after how the contract could be made. Rant over. Interestingly, a few other declarers played their K♦ first and when North dropped the Jack then proceeded to take the losing finesse into North's 10.

Thanks Diana I have done it successfully

I have installed BBO via google play on my Galaxy Tablet and it tell me that this App is compatible with my device. But when I press log in nothing happens. When I go to www.bridgebase.com the screen tells me that I need Adobe Flash Player but when I press Get Flash it tells me that Adobe Flash Player is not supported by my device. What am I not doing or doing wrong?

After a quick look I cannot find anything significant that you did wrong. On B18 you just might have made done more on this basis: 2♠ = without detailed prior agreement would be a "help suit" game try from partner or similar showing slam interest. You do have help for partner's spades so just might have bid something less discouraging than 3♥, but with a 12 4333 and ♥xxxx the 3♥denial is entirely understandable. 4♣ now says it was a slam partner was interested in spite of your denial so you cue 4♦ and after partner bids 4♥you might just try 5♣showing the ace. Then partner should get the message and bid 6♥. OTOH partner has a spectacular hand and over 2♥might have just blasted 4NT and bid 6 finding you with 2 aces.

Playing Acol 12-14NT you might have opened 1NT. Having decided to open 1♣then ofcourse you have to pass. Partner will put you with an unbalanced had with at least 5 clubs and more or less a min opener and take appropriate action. If and its a big if (contraversial) you play support doubles with a weak no trump then when you pass, partner will put you with 1345, 1336 or possibly 2425 and not inclined to open 1N because of doubleton weakness. If you were 1444 then you would not normally open 1♣.

[hv=pc=n&s=sj932hj7da975c976&n=saq8h642d6cakqt82&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1c1d1s2d]266|200[/hv]love all You are playing support doubles. Construct a reasonable bidding sequence.

Clearly Steve does. Would you care to tell us more?

[hv=pc=n&e=s52hkdakjt9742c53&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1h1s2h]133|200[/hv] Your bid

I am going to try and develop Nigel’s assessments. X A slam swing was lost on my hand, but on average the potential loss would be on the high side of a game swing say 13imps. 13 * 0.2 = +2.6 imps Y My guess is that the median loss would be 3Cx-2 against a part score = 5imp. 5*0.1 = -0.5imp. Z This is the obverse of x. 13*0.1 = -1.3imps. M Say 50% of hands opps bid game and go down when 3♣ also goes down = +6imp. 50% of hands opps fail to reach a making game +10imp. 0.2*8 = +1.6imps. N Here I would take issue with Nigel about being more likely that this particular pre-empt would get you to the right contract. Imagine partner considering 3N with ♣Ax. With a “pure” pre-empt KQJxxx partner would judge 6 or 7 tricks depending on 6 or 7 card suit. So would likely gamble on it yielding at least 6 tricks when there are only 2 tricks in the suit. Nevertheless I will stick with Nigel’s n=10%. Say (3N-2 against 3♣=) -5imp. 0.1*5= -0.5imp. This gives a net average gain of 1.9 imps which is substantial. Of course if we downgrade x and m and upgrade y,z and n we would get a very different result.

[hv=pc=n&s=s42ha3d532ck98753]133|100[/hv] At green I decided to pass this hand and the opponents bid to 6NT. Partner led a spade and the contract duly made. The only lead to defeat the contract was a club. Now forget this hand and think of pre-empting in general and give probabilities for the advantages and disadvantages in making a pre-empt. Say the pre-empt gives you: x times more chance that partner leads your suit to get the contract off. probability y that you will get penalised too much for your pre-empt. z times more chance that the opps will read the cards correctly to make the contract when you pre-empt against when you don't pre-empt. m times the chance the opps will get to the wrong contract for any lead. n times the chance that when the contract belongs to your side you get to the wrong contract. How can we evaluate these factors? It is noticable that over the years all 3 level pre-empts are getting weaker and on fewer cards. Now back to my particular hand. Anyone to put figures for xyzmn and any other factors you think relevant?

You have to assume your opps are not insane and likely have a 9 card fit. Partner will therefore have at least a 5 card diamond suit. Say: ♠ -, ♥QJ10, ♦AJxxx, ♣QJxx. Here I have given partner 3 wasted points in clubs and you would be lucky to make 5♦. Improve partner's hand to ♣KQxx 5♦look very good. The question is would partner re-open with a double with this hand? I think I would go for 5♦. Double if you are more conservative and partner is very aggressive.

Oh I see what you are getting at. However, making this discovery play with A985 opposite ♣KJ76, you happen to be on lead from the KJ76. So presumably you would just bang down the King and then run the Jack. Running the Jack first would be equal, although there are some even with Q10x who might not cover.