ncohen

No idea if it'll work, but try making up a new login and password.

The number of people who finish the Sunday free BBO Forums Sunday Daylong tournament is always much smaller than the number of entrants. Yesterday was typical. The results said 2434 tables (entries) and 316 finished (places). Any idea why so few finished? For example, in a recent daily tournament, there were 12,640 tables and 11,093 finished (places).

A good comment from the ENgland US match in the Culbertson days (40's?). I believe England was up, but had just lost a slam swing. One of the commentators said -- we've lost 3,000 pts on the hand (total points) -- if we can only hold the loss to 6,000. But, England got discouraged and started playing poorly.

i. LOTT doesn't take into account long side suits. In the most extreme example, it's off by 8 tricks: N is 7-6 solid in the majors, E is 7-6 solid in the minors. W has the rest of N's suits (all small) and S has the rest of E's suits. Then, both NS and EW make a grand in their 7-card trump suit (W and S can make a lead P's void in, but P is also out of trumps and so can't ruff). ii. LOTT doesn't take into account what I call purely defensive tricks. W's QJ10x of hearts is a trick on defense, but not on offensive because E only has 2, so the 3 round could be ruffed (unless N doesn't get a club lead in on time). E's SQ is similar -- of no use on offensive, but a trick on defense. LOTT is premised on a situation like clubs -- the K offsides is one trick less for EW but one more for NS, so the total tricks are the same. So, in making adjustments for LOTT, if you use it, weak trumps is a subtraction. iii. LOTT is based on averages. Diamonds split 2-0 roughly half the time (actually, 48%) on average. If they had split 2-0, NS might have an extra trick (For instance, swap S's diamond for one of N's clubs). In this hand, the even diamond split reduced the total tricks available.

There was a typo in the problem. You're always guaranteed 3 tricks, only 2 opp cards cover the AQ1098. The double finesse is the best chance for 5, and gets 4 whenever you can get 4, except for KJ doubleton offsides. Playing A first loses when you misguess the finesse on the second round -- whether W had Kxx (play the Q) or Jxx or KJxx (run the 10). So, unless the bidding tells you anything about the placement of the cards, run the 10 and run the 9 next.

Write the ACBL for an authoritative answer. The Bulletin has a column on rulings. Write to the author.

My partner and I are playing in a team game next weekend and need to improve our slam bidding. Does anyone know of an online source of practice hands? Alternatively, how easy would it be to download a hand generator and program it to generate slam practice hands? Thx.

The probabilities might have presented an interesting choice. Suppose you duck once in each of those suits, and the defense plays another suit, where you can also duck. Do you do so? It wins if neither suit splits but there's a squeeze (a defender holds both suits), but loses in the actual situation, when both suits split 3-3. Then, Pavlicek's site says there's a 13.2% chance that both suits split 3-3 (if nothing is known), but roughly a 13% chance (I was too lazy to add up all the chances exactly) that a defender guards both suits -- at least 4 of both -- ie. one defender is 4-4, 5-4, 4-5 in the relevant suits. In this case, knowing something about the defenders' distributions would be very helpful.

a cautionary note about LTC and LOTT. i. LTC is mathematically equivalent to a count that assigns points for high cards and for shortness. Unlike the standard count, though, it assigns 3 each for A, K, and Q (each is a non-loser), and 3-6 and 9 for doubleton singleton void. So, a. it counts A, K and Q the same. An A is worth more than twice a Q. b. It is far more optimistic than the standard count about the value of distribution, that either each card over 3 in a suit is a winner OR that each card less than 3 can be used as a ruff. The first assumption fails if, for instance, dummy lacks the entries to establish a long suit OR declarer is short in dummy's long suit so not all of the extra cards are winners. For example, xxx xx xxxx xxxx with spades trumps. This hand is 11 losers, so it is assumed it contributes a winner. That may not be possible if the defense can draw trumps or declarer also has a doubleton heart or declarer has QJ10 of hearts and doesn't need a ruff. The optimism is more justified when there's a good trump fit. I. There can be a lot of double counting. consider: AKQJ10987 65432 -- -- 654 1098 KQJ KQJ10 There's lots of double counting in the minors. N has a 2 loser hand and S has an 8 loser hand. Under LTC, 14 tricks should be available. ii. LOTT can be off by a zillion tricks. a, It doesn't take into account long side suits: AKQJxxx AKQjxx --- ---- ---- x xxxxxx xxxxxx NS can make 13 tricks in spades unless the heart lead is ruffed. If EW have mirror hands, they can also make 13 in Clubs or diamonds. That's 26 tricks with 14 total trumps. b. It doesn't take into account one defender holding winning trump tricks after his partner is out: AKxxxx AKx x xxx xx xxxx QJ109 QJ10 Again, if mirror distribution and there's a heart loser (and club loser for EW playing in diamonds), then there are 16 total trumps and 12 total tricks. So, if you have a good side suit, LOTT is too low. If you have strong cards in the opponent's suit, LOTT is too high.

Good point! But, if there's a chance GIB doesn't know I have a 3rd spade, then the spade return can give up a trick, since I'd be unable to finesse. So, there's a slight inference that the S 8 is good.

10874 QJ2 104 Kq73 K32 A1084 K976 Q3 MP lead: club 5. auction N E S W P 1D 1H x P 1N (all pass) On this hand, I was proud of using reasoning about GIB's defense to overcome my lack of concentration. N won the club A and returned a heart -- low J low. Then, ht A and another club. I attacked spades. At a critical part of the hand, after S took his 2nd spade trick (with me not noticing the fall of the S9 from N), he exited with the S5. I won the 10 in W this position: 8 -- Kq K32 A108x K9 --- I hadn't notice the fall of the 9, but figured that GIB probably wouldn't have returned a spade to make a finesse easy. Also, there was nothing to lose by playing the S 8, since the other suits were under control. So, I played it, discarding a diamond, and it captured W's 6 for an overtrick.

If the 6 of D lead is 4th best, then it's likely from 5 (if W has the 2) or 4 (if E does), although perhaps it's from 3. Anyhow, you might get some sort of count on diamonds from the discards. That will help at the end when you decide whether to finesse W or play for the drop.

Goren popularized the integration of the Work count for HCP and 1-2-3 for shortness as a measure of distributional strength (I believe that was invented by a Canadian actuary or accountant).

IMPS S (W) N E 1S 2H X* P * negative, at least initially 3S P 4H? What is 4H? What do you do as S? I remember stretching to bid 3S with something like AKJ9xx x A98x xx, but with perhaps a club card.

You S hold: AKJ10 xx 1098x AQJx. Imps. The auction: S W N E 1N* 2H** 2S*** P * 15-17 ** Alerted as transfer to S. *** undiscussed. What is 4S? 3N P 4S???

Not a good time for LTC. It values As the same as Qs, and so would undervalue this hand. That's especially true since the Q is with an A, and so "promoted." A Q by itself may be worthless if P has XXX. The Q with the A is worth 3/4 of a trick (it's a trick unless the K is with RHO).

My earlier analysis was wrong. Leading to ht K, requires only that E hold the heart A. It's worse than 3/8 or 37.5% since W may have 6 hearts and since a W hand lacking the H A may be too weak to bid 2S. But finessing club requires a parlay -- that E has club K, W has diamonds, W has ht A (or squeeze doesn't work), and that you can read the position -- you might go wrong if W has 6 D and 5 hearts, or 6-4. The chance that W has 5 diamonds instead of 5 clubs is roughly 4/11. Give W 3 clubs and the chance E has the K is 5/8. If E has the C K, W is very likely to have ht A for bid, and the odd distributions are unlikely. So, the club finesse is somewhat less than 5/8 x 4/11 = 20/88 = 23%. No inferences from opening lead, although it may increase the chance of 5+ diamonds since it didn't show a doubleton. So, neither line is good. Perhaps leading to ht K is better.

The club finesse is better than the heart finesse. W is known to have at least 5 hearts to E's 3, so has at least 5 chances of 8 of having the A. W is NOT known to have long clubs, so the club finesse gives better odds.

I agree. Go passive against 1N, unless you have a strong sequence. A heart or a club is too likely to give up a trick. Besides, how wrong can GIB be :)

Personally, I believe E must have something for his 3 diamond bid opposite a passing partner. In fact, I'm surprised that W would have DK. A singleton club and an additional red card is a stronger hand than Qx of clubs. So, I'd play E for two singletons. If E is 1-4-7-1, I would expect a 3D rebid rather than 2H. I agree with playing hearts early. It might help with getting a count.

I think it's unlikely to give up a trick by leading diamonds. You're giving up a trick declarer can't make otherwise only if declarer is void and dummy has AKJ or declarer has the D J. That's unlikely, since declarer has length in hearts and clubs. A diamond lead has a good chance of setting the contract if P has the DJ and declarer doesn't have 6 trumps, very unlikely on the auction.

I lead a diamond. If P has high diamond honor, the force will work.

I see a double dummy declarer line for down 1: duck first club, win spade, ruff club, duck heart. Now, W is endplayed. a diamond goes to the Q. a club is ruffed in dummy, with a diamond discard. It doesn't matter if E overruffs -- that costs the defense a trump trick. But, you're going to lose 2 trumps, a diamond, and a club. You can make with horrible defense: W returns a club, ruffed in dummy and E discards a spade. Now, cash 2nd S, ruff S, D to A, ruff 2nd spade. Cash two high trumps. E is left with two high trumps when declarer has a diamond and small trump left. Otherwise, if W returns a diamond or E overruffs or discards a diamond on W's club, it's down 1.

E was Challenges -GIB, and that's a typical GIB play.

W N E S P 1D P 2D (inverted) 3C 3D P 3N (all P) lead: S 5 ♠ A103 ♥a1094 ♦KQ982 ♣8 ♠ 72 ♥KJ3 ♦A1054 ♣kq72 you duck the first trick, E winning with the J. He returns the club 5 to the Q and A. Now, the club J (S10) 9 and K. You play diamonds, starting with the K. E has 4 to the J. On the run of the first 4 diamonds, W discards S9, C 6, C4, and S8. He then discards ht 8 on the S A (E playing the 6). On the last D, E discards Ht 6 and W the club 2. How do you play the hearts and why? The lead is in dummy: ♥a1094 ♥KJ3 ♣7 answer follows, if I've figured out the editor: