ordo1

The statistics for the division of 4 cards are: 3/1 50%, 2/2 40% and 4/0 10%. Playing the ace looses only 1 trick in these cases: 2/2 division = 40% 1/3 division, singleton at either side, singleton k or q = half of 50% x 25% 0/4 division fails. Total of 65%. Now the double finesse: 2/2 with at most 1 honor offside 3/4 * 40% = 30% 1/3 always success = 50% 0/40 all onside = 5% Total of 85%