PriorKnowledge

This site computes these odds for you. http://www.automaton.gr/tt/en/OddsTbl.htm

Some additional thoughts: J J10xx Jxxx AKxx opposite an avg 1S opener will not make 3N. Give opener something like AQxxx x AQxx Jxx or KQxxx x KQx QJxx and 3N (and 3H) are down. If opener has less, 3H might even make. So an immediate 3N does not appear wise. That leaves us with the immediate pass and decision over partner's subsequent reopening dbl. If we give opener more so that 3N makes like AKxxx x KQx QJxx, 3H is still only down 2. Since overcaller probably has 7h for the 3H bid, 3H is likely only down 3 at most no matter how strong opener. So it boils down to your opening bid and reopening dbl style: If your style is lite openers and lite reopening dbls, I guess you have to pull to 3N because 3H might make. If your style is normal openers and reopening dbls, 3HX is probably your best spot. If your style requires the reopening 3-level dbl has extras, then 3N is your best spot.

Morph Alert! Yes! Exactly! Opener can pass a semi-forcing with a 12-13 5332 hand, but must rebid on anything else. Some feel the ability to play a 1N contract or get the opps to come in blind at the 2-level is worth modifying your system. Maybe it's the stress of playing all those 4-3 minor suit 8 tricks contracts when 7 NT tricks were there.

Pass and then pass partner's X If my partner reopens with a 5143 11-count, I better pass, because it is much more likely we'll get 5 tricks defending hearts than 9 tricks declaring NT. I pass even if I think partner will pass out with a min hand. Do you really want to force to the 4m level with this hand by making a negative double? Do you really want to bid 3N opposite a min opener? I'd rather pass out a 3H bd and hope to set it. Hey - Sometimes preempts work

Semi-forcing 1N? I dunno... Actually... I think it already is, kinda, since the strength of the 1N is about 8-11 and mostly just denies 3+spades.

There is no reason to bid unless passing will miss a game. So the decision is probably based on knowing your partner's style. 1) Does partner overcall 1S with a strong hand and a 6-card spade suit or a strong hand with 5s, 4h? Then we might miss 4M 2) Does partner overcall 1S with 5s, 4d and a strong hand or overcall 1N? Most players would overcall 1S in those cases, so I think the risk of missing a game is worth taking a bid. And that bid is 1N. I'd want a better suit to bid 2C. In my style, the 1N does not promise a diam stopper. Even without a diam stopper, opps are unlikely to cash enough diam to set 1N. If partner is interested in a NT game and has no diam stopper, partner can q-bid diam. So the 1N advance does not much jeopardize our plus and leaves open the game possibilities in hearts, spades or NT.

I would need the KQ of hearts mixed in with my diamonds. :D WinstonM PAWASAMBIAROTFLMAO

I think figuring out the original question from the clues is more interesting and fun then providing the answer!

I was going to put "American" in the sentence, because I thought it presumptuous of me as I don't know enough expert Europeans. But the sentence started to get real complicated and confusing. Do all American experts play it this way? Probably not. Some have their own private methods. Do all American experts even agree that this is "commonly played among experts". Again probably not. But I think that most experts who were not regular partners, who got a game together, would play it this way. Am I too arrogant? Probably. From my early years as a bridge teacher and director. I try to tone it down, but sometimes forget. At least I am quick to admit when I am wrong, which is sadly occuring with increased frequency.

BTW, this is a very poor policy, because some players are ALWAYS in doubt. :ph34r: I think the first question you should ask yourself in a confusing auction is, "Can I pass?"

:ph34r: One expert I know called certain bids, "Standard Expert", implying that experts have a secret society that distributes this knowledge among them unknown to the average player. :( Honestly: The interpretation of double or triple jump advances to takeout doubles as preemptive is quite commonly played by most experts. Ask them. Go to a regional or national tournament, walk up to a renown expert and ask. They will usually be happy to answer questions like this. The reason to use this bid as preemptive is quite simple. You already have a way to show a strong hand: Q-bid and bid your suit. You don't have a way to show a pre-emptive hand. And you do need to be preemptive. ALWAYS. Whenever you have a 9-card fit on a non-game hand, get to the 3-level fast. This is a LOTT bid. You know you belong at the 3-level. Make it hard for the opps. This is why experts play that a jump raise to 3 of overcaller's suit is preemptive and a q-bid is a game-invite+ raise. But when you have game-forcing strength, take it slow. Find out your best final contract. Make sure partner knows you are strong in case the opps interfere so you can make the right decision whether to double or bid on.

The modern expert interpretation of high-level doubles like this is Offensive. That means if the bidding goes 4S p p and you have a trump stack, you just pass and take your plus score. Save the doubles for Offensive hands. Think about it: How often will an opponent have an 8-card suit and you have a trump stack and KNOW that penalty double is the best course of action? Compare that to how often an oppenent will have an 8-card suit, you have a big hand, no suit of your own, and you don't know what to do?

Steve, we don't know what partner has. Nor what partner needs. The point is we have an agreement. 3N shows a min and 4C would show extras. Without one of the partners having extra strength, and neither partner can splinter, slam is very unlikely. It is not unreasonable that partner has something like AKx Qxx Qx QJxxx or Axx Qxx Ax QJxxx. Opposite either hand 5H could go down.

I disagree. Most play the dbl/triple jump is preemptive. With game-force values, q-bid opener's suit. This shows either a game-force hand or invitational hand with both majors. In any case, I don't see the point of having a bid that is better than 10, but less than a game force. That does not make sense. 10 + stiff is certainly close enough to game force. So I would q-bid 2D. If you feel it is not a game-force, then just jump to 2S. If dbler is min, dbler passes, with plenty dbler bids 4S. With question, dbler can bid 3S and then you could bid 4S.

ahem :D