With the 21-23 hcp simulation 33 made 2♦ and 37, 18, and 2 made 3, 4 & 5 respectively for an expected score of 107.6 on each of the 90 hands that make. In 1N 38, 20, 14, and 4 make 1 to 4N respectively for an expected score on the 76 hands that make of 113.7. So if the contract is making you want to be in notrump at MPs, but if you don't know if its makeing and you are nv the expectations are 71 for notrump and 91 for ♦s. :P Mike