With ♦A and no ♣ I would never consider 4♠. Give P ♠Ax ♥AKx ♦QJTx ♣xxxx and 6 is a lay down and remove the ♥K and 6 is still 50% If P has passed it is clear cut 4♠
I did the same simulation in Jack6.10 with these results ♠10: -461.7 ♣7: -470.4 ♥J: -484.9 ♦K: -580,6 So ♦K is clearly the worst lead and ♠10 best but close to ♣7 and ♥J
If you can't bid 2NT and 3♥ is asking your best guess might be 3NT I am not pleased with 4NT. With no length in the minors I wont accept the invite for 6NT