Please read my full analysis.When one is making the FIrst Bid ,be it any denomination,one does not know where the Ace of a suit will be.Neither is there any reason to suppose that 33.33 % it will be with partner. I have calculated the winning possibility when one presumes that the Ace is with the opponents and all the further logic is on the same basis.And I have even said that the trick taking value changes and so does the HCP value of a honor card when the bidding proceeds further and the experts always revalue the HCP value of any honor card as indicated by the opponents silence or otherwise.I am afraid ,you have based your valuation only on mathematical probability.I am giving a hand,you hold,xxxx,AQxxx,void,xxxx,and RHO opened a weak Notrump .My partner with the given hand called 2 C (Landy).I held x,xx,xxxx,AKQxxx and passed.Opener bid 2diamond and my P bid 3 Clubs, His LHO bid 4 Spade and I bid 5 clubs And the HCP counting opponents doubled so loudly that the roof of an adjoining house was blown away .Result was one over trick.This hand was reported in the bulletin of the state level tournament.The 25 HCP with opponents produced ONLY once trick.That's why one has to be right at the table.