larlar

pfft http://bboskill.com/user/phantomsac :P

North just fell asleep and made a bad play. Not popping with the queen of diamonds to play a club is ridiculous, north knew the diamond position at that point. You don't really have to figure out the exact layouts where popping queen to play a club in this position wins. If you know what is happening in diamonds, you know it will be good to go up and shoot a club through rather than let your partner be in as a general principle. Once east and south pitch a diamond, the position is known. Edit: To clarify that, if south had 5 clubs he would have pitched a club not a diamond, this is always true. Likewise, if east had 3 clubs and 4 diamonds he would have pitched a club and just driven the diamond.

After south makes a game try, north should bid a game. Not that it's a great game but south did have the (sort of) wasted DK.

After south makes a game try, north should bid a game. Not that it's a great game but south did have the (sort of) wasted DK.

I think you are 100 % right, no one good plays a direct 3N as showing no stopper, or lebensohl after a weak 2 X as the same as after a 1N opener and an overcall. Some people use 2N then 3N as doubt about NT. You're right that this is still unclear, but if the Xer pulls with a singleton and passes with 2 or 3 then you can definitely increase your accuracy while still not being perfect. Personally I prefer to use 2N then 3N as showing 4M and a stopper, 2N then cuebid as showing 4M and no stopper, and a direct cuebid as showing a game forcing hand without a stopper and without 4M. This allows you to show all the hand types below 3N, but doesn't allow you to show a 3N bid where you might want partner to pull. Since you don't seem to believe in that hand type being useful anyways, you will probably like that structure.

If the suit is 5-2 then it is 2.5 times more likely that the hand with 5 has the queen. Even with restricted choice (2-1) with xx in each major, it is more likely the hand with 5 spades has the queen

If declarer is 3352 with 1 heart stopper, he will not hold up on the second spade giving you a chance to now set up 3 or 4 heart tricks while you still hold the ace of clubs. His most likely line is to win the spade, play a club to dummy, then go after diamonds. Likewise, with 3343 and 1 heart stopper (and KJx and AJx count as one heart stopper), he is not going to hold up on the spade, his most likely line is to hope for Ax of clubs and failing that play diamonds. The same applies when he is 3433 or 3532, the difference is that there are many more holdings that declarer can have that he will consider "2 stoppers" in diamonds that actually aren't since we have 3 small, including AJT, AQT, KQT. The other likely reason for holding up twice is something like what is actually happening, declarer is 3442 with strength in both suits, in which case a diamond is also the indicated play. I would say that shifting to a heart is a pretty brainless play.

The ten is right for technical reasons as well, if RHO wins the heart and plays a club back our main chance is going to be taking 3 spades, 3 hearts, 2 clubs, and 2 diamonds. We are going to need the jack of hearts to be doubleton, and if it is the 9 of hearts being an entry will be crucial to our plan as we are an entry short to both finesse spades and cash the king without it. Also if LHO has something like AJxxx of hearts and works out to pop ace we will be much better off having unblocked the heart ten. The only alternative to playing the ten of hearts seems to be playing the queen of hearts. Since they must win, we guarantee 2 entries to dummy. If we could somehow combine chances in hearts and spades this might be a serious option, but we can't. After someone wins and plays a club, we win it and go to the diamond king and hook a spade and cash the ace of spades. Now we will have to guess whether or not to hook the heart (going for 3 spades, 3 hearts, 2 clubs, and 2 diamonds), or play a heart to the king and hoping spades split if the jack doesn't fall (going for 5 spades, 1 heart, 2 clubs, and 2 diamonds). Compare this to having led the HT at trick 2 and LHO wins the ace, in that case we are going to make if either hearts or spades come in in that situation. Of course, compared to RHO having won the ace we are much better off starting with the queen than the ten, but that just means if the opponents are going to win the ace, half of the time we are much better off starting with the ten, and half of the time we are much worse off starting with the ten. Given that, I would like to keep the main upside of LHO forgetting to win the ace of hearts, nobody is perfect.

beautiful line!!

At least Art added the "at least not in North America" bit. It is very uncommon to see anyone in NA playing NLM, even top players. Of course, it is very common elsewhere, especially The Netherlands, and probably Art should realize that the reason he hears about it on the forums but not elsewhere in his "real life" is because he probably only talks to non NA players on here.