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sorry I did get the bidding sequence totally wrong. sorry also for the lengthy disertation I was very excited it looked very interesting the way I initially understood in case your P opened 1♦, RHO X, then its pretty simple, bid 1♠ as Ken explained why.

P's x shows 12+ Hcp balanced rather weak in !D, a stronger hand with a good own suit is highly unlikely, anyway we should count max 7-8 losing tricks in P's hand our hand counts 12 Hcp and 6 Losing tricks which makes game in spades certain and slam a possibility the priority is to describe accurately and immediately our hand and cut opponents any chance to exchange information options: X - typically shows 8-10 Hcp and defensive values bid at 1 level shows a 4-5 card suit and "some" values 4-8 Hcp, jump bid would show a 4 card suit and 9-11 points double jump would show a 6 card suit and less than game going values 8-10 Hcp none of the above match our hand which leaves us with two options: jump to game or cuebid at this point we should judge our chances for game versus slam counting Hcp in opps hands shows that RHO probably has a max of 3 Hcp, in this situation his 2!C bid shows 6+ clubs with K or QJ10 ,shortness in !S, and probably 2 diamonds, alternately may be a lead directing bid showing A!C and 5!c, however counting points rather discredits this alternative therefore, LHO shoud have KJxxxx in diamonds, and some values in Hearts, P is very likely to have 2 small diamonds, 4 Hearts, 4 Clubs and 3 Spades versus a hand like: !S: Kxx !h: KQxx !D: xx !C: KJxx would barely make game since we lose A!C, K!D and A!H while a hand like the following makes 6!S !S: Kxxx !H: AQ10x !D: x !C: Axxx therefore we should bid 4!S which is the most descriptive bid at this point and trust that our P will follow same line of reasoning and based on the quality of trump support, posibility to ruff Diamonds, control of Hearts and eventualy 1st round control of clubs may bid 6!S directly with a void in clubs I would cuebid 3!C odds for slam are higher, in the region of 50% with better spade quality - AKJ10xx instead of AQJxxx I would cuebid 2!d, waiting for P to show A!C and stronger H suit - bidding sequence would be: 1!D -X - 2!C - 2!D (cue) - Pas - 2!H (mostlikely , shows 4!H), Pas - 2!S (that is what I want, forcing) 3!C ( Ace of !C, slam seeking) or alternately 4!S - (STOP, missing Ace of clubs)

I strongly support Carbon's opinion that PARTNERSHIP SUCCESS should be the main goal, or at least that is what one would expect of that ranking - a successful partnership with a casual partner. while I am lost in the stats mumbo jumbo which seems pretty clever to me, I would suggest you take into consideration not only historical direct partnership success (A - B) but also an extrapolation like if (A-B) and (B-C) were successful, then (A-C) should be successful. Depending on computing power you can/would allocate you may go beyond A-B-C-D-....... and probably by 5th or 6th level any two players are connected. I dont think that system preference should be a factor for casual partnerships since we tend to play a standard 2/1 with basic gadgets obviously experts will have higher rankings overall given a higher success rate.... Compatibility is also about social skills so I suggest a mix of the two approaches BTW, if you succeed to perform the regression and identify what really makes a partnership successful, please make it public