Statto

I blame West for not having ♠K :o

Less than 100% but close, maybe 99%. Consider the large number of routine hands, and that most of the examples of 'interesting' hands from the recent world championships revolved around the bidding. Also, the best % line may be due to a deduction from the bidding, something which is hard to judge even post-mortem.

B-) P must have something for their 6♣ bid and they don't have many aces. True, a 5-1 ♥ break is probably more likely than an opening ruff and if P doesn't have ♥10 we may be able to ruff one to make sure they're good, but it may put strain on the ♣s. The other thing is the few extra IMPs for 7NT vs 7♣. By mentioning that, I'm accepting that 7♣ may be safer after all ;)

7NT to protect against an opening ruff. ♠K,♥KQ10xxx,♦-,♣AJ10xxx

Further thoughts: Most of the non-♥ honors will be between P and LHO, giving P overcards, and thus some chance that 5♣ might actually make - e.g. give P as little as ♠KJx-♥xxx-♦Qxx-♣xxxx and 5♣ just needs a 2-1 break if everything else is onside as is likely (or bolster P's hand with ♣Q to counter a likely 3-0 break, or just throw in ♦K instead). It's probably well below 50% for that to be the case, whilst for the same reason (P's overcards) I think 4♥ will struggle, so I want to defend. At different vulnerabilities 4♥ will be more sound. Game all may be different to love all. What was the actual hand?

P is prob 3334 or thereabouts with scattered values. Can't see us getting close to making 5♣ so it looks a poor sac at this vul. At fav I'd bid 5♣; at equal it's more tricky tho prob pass - P is still there. I have some defence, and if P doubles I'd leave it in. I have some hope of defeating 4♥. Only some of this is clear-cut - pass right now is. LoTT is almost precisely 20, but this looks like a hand where it could fall over. You could bid 5♣ and hope opps bid 5♥ over it, but I'd give them more respect. -500 could be 0% compared to -450, and to some extent we are fixed already.

The other question is what do you reopen with? I assume most are considering X, but what about 4♣?

Ah, sry, just checking :)

Had something similar recently -- P-(P)-1♦-(P); 1♥-(3♠)-P-(P); ? -- though it was love all (and obviously not quite the same). With little extra despite 5 ♥s, and fearing pushing opps into a making 4♠, I passed. 3♠ made on the nose. 4♥ our way would have been 1 off. Still, I'll continue to think that you need a little extra push on in these situations...

The chances quoted above will be close. However, the probability of one hand having a void is not independent of whether another hand does. E.g. given that West has a void, it's more likely another hand has a void in another suit, due to there being fewer cards in the other suits to share around. It's quite complicated to work out accurately (so I haven't :ph34r:), but it could be quite significantly more likely than the independent calculation suggests.