kemperb

I've heard of light overcalls, but really? ♠Qxxxx (not even the nine!) and a side ace opposite an unpassed hand?

It seems to me that in theory, whatever declarer's best play is against standard carding, he can make the inverse play against upside down. There should be the same (mirrored) scenarios that win with one as with the other, so there should be no edge with either one. I agree that in practice, declarer will tend to be prepared to card optimally against standard carding, and will thus be suboptimal against UDCA, giving it an edge.

Sure there is. All you need is the hand with three clubs to also hold nine spades and the guarded ♦Q, then you have a routine triple squeeze set up. (C'mon, the Hideous Hog would find a way to make it happen.)

Yeah, I looked at this line at first, but as you note you are a dummy entry short to make it pay off against competent defenders. But not all defenders are competent and it is unlikely to cost in an average field, so it's probably right to try it. In a strong field, you risk going down more than others (diamonds were Qx and you find KJT of trumps offside and thus can't get to dummy for the ditches, going down two when clubs don't split), so it's probably wrong then.

So it doesn't make sense to try for a huge score in 2Hxx? And before you tell me a 3-3 fit can't be profitable, I was once presented such an opportunity after 1C-1S-2H-(X)-XX holding ATx,KTx,A,AK8xxx. Pard had Q9xxx,Qxx,KQxxx,- and we were cold for an overtrick (+1240) despite a 6-1 trump split, with no slam remotely possible. Yes, it was a dumb double by my LHO (who had AJ9xxx and out), but why should we have let her off the hook by playing some artificial redouble? Besides, how often are you going to have a void on this auction? Why didn't anyone bid hearts before? So that means your interpretation virtually always will show the ace, but why is it so urgent to show it now?

Pass if my choice too. The spots are only really important in NT, and who knows if we have a club stop? Even if we have one, can we take nine tricks before they run clubs? We have a max of 25 pts and no long suit; I'll bet we're underdogs to make game.

That's too bad, because +840 is a fun score to get, not to mention a sizable IMP gain or a (near-)top at MPs. It is not uncommon for partner to have 4 hearts (or 3 good ones) on this auction; if he has an offensive hand, he knows I don't have four hearts and can pull the redouble. There is even still the possibility of right-siding NT, assuming that's even necessary. Who knows if RHO even has an entry to the hearts--he couldn't even muster up a 1♥ bid the previous round. Fourth suit auctions are usually one of two types of hands: good hands with slam aspirations with a clear direction, or game-forcing (or better) hands with no clear direction. For the former hand type, the 4SF bidder will continue on as if nothing happened. For the latter, your opponent kindly has prevented you an extra option. Why spurn it?

(Post deleted.)

1) Pass. I adhere to the "don't preempt with a LR+ in another major" philosophy, and this hand would be a game bid opposite a 1♥ opener. Opening 2♥ is way too much for me. 2) Dislike 1N. With concentration in the black suits, I prefer to open the suit on 6322. NT is likely to play better from pard's side, why hurry to open it? Once you open 1N, I think you have to take the plunge and bid 3♣, though this is much less clear.

If we assume equal probability of leading from a suit without an honor regardless of suit length, then the odds work like this: Case 1: If he has no honors: 3/12 ♠/♥/♦/♣ led Case 2: If he has only ♣Q: 4/12 ♠/♥/♦ Case 3: If he has only ♦Q: 4/12 ♠/♥/♣ Case 4: If he has both queens: 6/12 ♠/♥ Thus, there are 17 equal chances of a spade lead: 6 of them where he has both queens, 3 where he has neither, and 4 each where he has ♣Q or ♦Q alone. He is 10/17 to have the ♣Q (Case 2 + Case 4), and similarly 10/17 to have the ♦Q (Case 3 + Case 4). So a priori the finesse against the opening leader for the ♦Q is about 60%, and of the club/diamond squeeze working is 9/17 (Case 1 + Case 4), or about 54%. Of course, when you cash other suits, you may gain information that skews the odds. And it is of course not the same to lead from xx as it is to lead from xxxxxx in this auction. It is definitely a hand to keep the defenders in the dark as long as possible and force them to discard blind, while not committing to either line, for as long as possible. BTW, what is "KC Gerber"? You can't ask for keycards when there is no trump suit agreed upon, so shouldn't it just be "Gerber"?

Truthfully, no suits were bid, since all suit bids were artificial in this auction. Still, with no other info, the opening leader is still somewhat more likely to hold the ♣Q (and likewise the ♦Q) than not based on restricted choice. I would certainly run the five spades, pitching two clubs from dummy, then I think I would continue by cashing ♣KA. If the queen doesn't drop, I'll hopefully have enough info from the discards to determine whether to take the diamond finesse (i.e. save the heart entry to overcome the blockage) or whether to cash the three hearts and go for a club/diamond squeeze.

I'm with you. Yes, you could have a perfecto slam, but you might not even make game, so I will settle for game. The spades are so much better than the hearts that I don't want to give partner an option. Why give pard a chance to put us in 4♥ with hands like Kx Kx KQxx Axxxx or Kx xxxx KQx AKxx? You will virtually always need the spades to make your contract, but won't necessarily need the hearts.

If my partner bid this way, I'd assume he has clubs. The first double didn't deny clubs, and neither did the second, so why can't partner have something like AQx KQx x AKJTxx? The 2♣ bid could be a psyche, or maybe a legitimate bid like Kx xx AKxxx Qxxx. The better question might be: what is 2♦? Natural, as in "OMG, I can't stand 2♣x" with xxx xx QJT9xxx x, or artificial, as in "OMG, we're going places" with values?

So I'm curious how this hand ended up. It's a pretty complicated play problem IMO, and I'm a little disappointed to see neither other suggestions nor a description of what actually happened.

Not sure I agree with South's bidding, but that's not the point of the post. So on to the play problem: I don't see how West has an opening bid without the DK, so I will assume they are playing Roman leads (or he's being tricky) and he has KJT(xx). It seems right to attack their communication suit (diamonds), but first what is their distribution? The club discard makes it likely that East has five of them, so I will play West for 5341 shape and play as follows: Unblock ♦A, lead a club to the ten or ace (see below) and exit the ♦9. West must win this and either give me my heart finesse or exit the last diamond. The latter leads to East leading clubs to my king and getting thrown back in with a club to lead hearts for me, defense getting two diamonds and two clubs. The kicker with this line is that West can cash the ♠A before exiting in diamonds, which gives the defense 1♠ and 2♦ without giving me nine tricks, so I must limit them to one club trick. That means I must guess whether West started with an honor and sky ace on the first round, or whether it's a spot card, which requires a finesse of the ten. AJ9xx Qxx KJTx x is an opening bid in my book, but not everybody's, so I'd have to decide based on opponent and/or table feel.