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Let me take a stab at the first. It's important because the Dems haven't come up with an answer either. Let me create a fantasy family, fairly common, and not worry too much about whether this is middle class or lower middle class. Fantasy: Husband, wife, two kids in elementary school. The guy works full time, sometimes with overtime. The woman has a part time job and takes care of the kids after they get home frfom school. They are renting, but saving hoping maybe to buy a house. Vacations are infrequent, and consist of camping in a state park or driving to and staying with relatives. The kids sometimes act up, sometimes don't do their homework, but they haven't failed anything (yet). And, no doubt relevant, they are white. OK, The Dems explain that we really have to help the poor single mother. We have to close the achievement gap and sometimes it sounds as if they really don't care whether this is done by blacks doing better or whites doing worse. (Not a complete fantasy, I was once at a talk about data showing boys had done worse than in the past on a standardized math test and the guy mentioned that this had narrowed then boy-girl achievement gap. I don't think he was joking.). Also we have to help the gay community and the trans-gender community. We have to help Latinos. The sub-text is that the white working class, married and bringing up their kids, are the enemy. You might say this is a mis-perception on their part and perhaps it is, but mis-perceptions are usually based on at least some reality, stretched out a bit. The American liberal base has changed a lot since I was a child and there are a lot of votes out there for the party that figures out how to address the needs, hopes and frustrations of the fantasy family described above. Portraying them as selfish, or stupid, because they are enjoying some modest success that others have not achieved is not the way to their vote. I vote Dem, or at least usually. There are a lot of reasons for this but economic self-interest is not paramount, I am not rich, not at all, but I do not foresee any financial problems. I don't need, or even want, a yacht. I probably would head off to Paris for a while if I had some spare cash but hiking in the Shenandoah is fine. So, at this time of life, I vote mostly on what seems best for the country. I think Dems are more aligned with my values, although there are times that I wonder. I expect the fantasy family above would wonder about this alignment, or lack of it, more often. This is the best I can offer but I think that there is something to it.

http://i61.tinypic.com/msfwp1.jpg 近日，“标兵桥牌的博客”发表系列文章，详细叙述了这一次强震。 系列文章标题： 1、Schwartz团队集体放弃北美冠军头衔、指控以色列组合 。 2、Brogeland打出第一张底牌——以色列青年事件升温。 3、Brogeland公布2014年欧锦赛视频 4、Fisher/Schwartz宣布分手 5、“咳嗽是什么意思？”——BC网公布最新视频 6、Boye受到威胁、以色列密码被非认证破译 7、以色列桥牌协会宣布退出百慕大杯 8、瑞典接替以色列参加百慕大杯、Fisher/Schwartz再发声明。 9、凯恩放弃斯平果尔德杯冠军和以色列组合 10、Fantoni-Nunes浮出水面 11、摩纳哥发表声明：Fantoni-Nunes退出百慕大杯 12、摩纳哥退赛 13、世界桥联的正式声明 （未完待续） 信息源链接 ：标兵桥牌的博客

Why do poor people vote Republican? Of those who do vote Republican, race, religious beliefs and ignorance are apparently bigger factors than economic self interest. For example, 70 percent of white non-Hispanic evangelicals self identify as Republicans or leaning Republican vs 19 percent Democrat and the rest do not lean either way. In a Public Mind poll earlier this year, 51 percent of Republicans said they believe it to be “definitely true” or “probably true” that American forces found an active weapons of mass destruction program in Iraq vs 32 percent of Democrats. Sources: Working class voters: why America's poor are willing to vote Republican and Pew Research Center.

You will find a fair share of bears fans who think it doesn't hurt either.

讨论这个问题之前，我先阐述一下对类似问题的看法。在牌桌上，当叫牌局面形成竞叫与防御叫的局面时，竞技性牌手与娱乐性牌手会明显地形成差别，前者对前二轮的叫牌几乎不会发生误解与争论，而后者则相反。后者往往对叫品的选择会各执一词，互相难以说服对方，甚至难以说服自己。 如现在这个牌局，当应叫人双加倍叫出时，脱离了体系框架，进入了竞叫。我模拟几个场景来“推演”一下。 场景一：XX州EAGLE PLUB 85岁的吉米持有单缺的一手牌，自然开叫1D，LHO加倍，同伴再叫倍。老吉米的逻辑： 1.同伴的所有再加倍表示10+,同伴在一阶或二阶上叫新花都是6-9,跳新花是紧张套的6-9.那么同伴属于S好套的建议惩罚的牌，鉴于自己并不好的结构（因为LHO的加倍）和概率不高的满贯可能性，选择PASS吧，呵呵.:)，但。。。也许应该叫到局。 场景二：45岁的大象和无形PD。大象开叫1D，OPP-X 同伴 XX。大象多年来使用美国自然并使用2/1体系。再加倍是“无奈”的选择，一是同伴有套可以在一阶出套，如果二阶有套则会无奈的先加倍再出套。或者对同伴开叫花色无支持，又有实力，只能无奈的加倍，那么，同伴的再加倍就是惩罚无疑。 场景三：正在参加一场比赛，利昂与同伴在OPP参与争叫时，使用较为复杂的转移应叫+system on ，无视OPP加倍（只当他告诉我们他具有防守实力），同伴的再加倍4+H以及成局以上实力，那这时的选择显然是4H方向了。 如果让场景一二三的同伴拆档后，会发生什么？对，指得就是你我会常常碰到的局面，不知道同伴的XX是神马

The OP did.

What's wrong with 2H? Looks pretty automatic to me.

I prefer takeout but standard is penalty. Last time this sequence came up on this forum, most voted for penalty.

敬请关注 世界桥联主席罗纳、名誉主席达米亚尼将于9月26日16：00在百慕大杯赛场召开的新闻发布会。 http://www.worldbridge.org WBF最新消息 Germany has withdrawn from the Bermuda Bowl and we are pleased to announce that France has accepted the invitation to participate in their stead. We look forward to welcoming them to Chennai with all the other teams.

[hv=pc=n&s=sqj872hq952dakck6&n=sak94h43dqt3cjt82&d=e&v=n&b=2&a=p1sp2n(9-12%204%2B!S)p4sppp]266|200| yunling wrote "West led ♥A and switched to a trump. Not a difficult problem, but I got it wrong at the table again :(" Join the club :( My guess: Cover with dummy's ♠9. If East covers win in hand. Exit with ♥Q (hoping that West has ♥K). Intending to ruff 2♥s in dummy, making 7 X ♠ and 3 X ♦. [/hv]

I'm content to bid 2♠ on the first one. A slight underbid, but a) it's MPs, and b) my H honours won't provide much value if we're playing the contract. Hand 2 is less comfortable, but I'll opt for 3♥ (which we play as exactly 3 card support). That might not answer your real question, but I don't have an opinion on that without seeing a few sims, or bidding more hands each way than I can be bothered to :P

The danger in opening 1C is that you may not get an opportunity to show the 5th Spade. Nekthen's statement in post #9 that you will "never" be able to show the 5th Spade is an overbid. Generally speaking, rebidding spades twice would show a 5th Spade (and at least as long Clubs). Often you will be able to bid them twice and, Spades being the boss suit, prospects for this are as good as they will ever get. But sometimes not, at least not as safely as by opening 1S, especially if the auction gets contested. Furthermore, you may find yourself showing extra values if you bid the Spades twice in circumstances where you are not forced to bid again. Which is fine and dandy *if* you have the extra values (in which case also the likelihood of the opponents freezing you out may be reduced). The danger in opening 1S is that the Club suit may get lost entirely. Again that is less likely the stronger that you are, partly because with extra strength you may have enough to commit to the 3 level to show them, and partly because with extra strength you may be less likely be forced there by oppo (or by CHO for that matter). In my experience the modern thinking seems to be that the possibility of losing the 5th Spade, however remote, is the greater danger (possibly lower frequency, but higher total cost when frequency is multiplied by effect), and most will now open 1S. But any expert worth his salt should admit that there will be hands where having opened 1C would gain. Whether on the actual hand the other tables should perhaps still have found slam despite opening 1S, we can only say if we have the entire hand, but my inclination is that if responder has enough for slam in NT, there may be a route there via 1S. PS just realised that this is another Lovera necro-thread. Unfermented this time - only 6 months old

I would only bid 2♥ on days ending in y.

又一篇重磅文章: 德国退出百慕大杯 http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_53c5424f0102vwbi.html 节录： 不论是年轻的Smirnov幡然悔悟决定用忏悔来唤回良知，还是桥牌界轰轰烈烈的正义行动压倒了见不得阳光的猥琐行为，Smirnov/Piekarek自己主动认错了、忏悔了，他们应该是桥牌史上第一对肯对自己过去错误的行为作出确认的桥牌选手了，仅从这一点来看，他们是值得表扬的。 这场8月24日发起的桥牌革命发展到如今，应该说第一阶段正式告一段落，在事件发生伊始被职业牌手提出的三对作弊牌手已经被全部曝光，并且所在国家桥牌协会也全部退出了即将开赛的世界桥牌团体锦标赛。 作弊者一个一个被曝光，相关参赛队一个一个退出比赛、以前的队友一个一个出来宣告放弃冠军和头衔。这到底是不是这次运动的最终目的？桥牌运动如何发展？这才是真正的话题和难点。

My wife and I have decided to start practicing. If lots more pairs confess to cheating, we could be eligible to play in the Bermuda Bowl. ;) Rik

Man I love life right now. This is not over either.

These are just the super obvious well known cheaters. It would be naive to think there aren't others out there who are not being super obvious and are cheating a little that have not even been detected.

Opening 1♣ used to be expert standard but times, they are a changin. 1♣ can work out spectacularly well if you can indeed bid 1♣ then 1♠ then 2♠ but often it becomes quite muddy in competition, say, 1♣-(1♥)-p-(2♥) You really should bid 2♠ here on any excuse if you have an unbid 5-card major which is kind of a big deal. Unfortunately if you play this style, partner will not know if you have 5-5 or 6-5, let alone some 6-4 hands that you would rather not double with. And this is just interference to the 2-level... Also bids like 1♣-1NT ?? or 1♣-2♣ can get nasty (what if partner has a 3-card fit? or should he refrain from ever bidding 2♣ with 3 spades?). Sure you can agree to bid 2♠ with most of your 5-5 hands but then what if you have 5-4 strong? 6-5? 6-4? It's a mess. Overall, it is probably not as bad as its current lack of popularity indicates but to me, also clearly inferior. Note: this is mostly coming from a 5-card major background but I believe the fundamental problems are the same as you will have shown a 5-card spade suit by the second round of bidding anyway (i.e., 1♠-1NT; 2♣).

Nobody stops you from getting a second job. :P Rik

My belief is that the use of the word endplay stems from the fact that most of these positions arise towards the end of the hand. Yes, we do talk about people being 'end played' earlier, but that is unusual, which indeed is why it is remarked upon: a position that would normally be expected to arise late in the play has arisen earlier. It is a useful catchall term that encompasses a range of positions, which would otherwise need to be specified more precisely, and with more verbiage.